Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 27, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
13
Games covered
339
Hitters evaluated
26
Pitchers evaluated
July 27, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Merrill Kelly | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Zack Wheeler | 30.3% | Home Run |
| #3 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Keider Montero | 29.8% | Home Run |
| #4 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Tyler Phillips | 28.1% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Zach Neto | — | vs Tatsuya Imai | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Walbert Ureña | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Kyle Manzardo | — | vs Chase Burns | 24.1% | Home Run |
| #8 | Joc Pederson | Texas Rangers | vs George Kirby | 24.1% | Home Run |
| #9 | Luke Raley | — | vs Kumar Rocker | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Colby Thomas | — | vs Payton Tolle | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Kazuma Okamoto | — | vs Eddy Yean | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Esmerlyn Valdez | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Merrill Kelly | 24.0% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Zack Wheeler | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Kazuma Okamoto | — | vs Andrew Alvarez | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Colson Montgomery | — | vs Max Fried | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | Detroit Tigers | 7.2 | 4 | -3.2 | |
| Zack Wheeler | Miami Marlins | 5.8 | 6 | +0.2 | On Target |
| Max Fried | Chicago White Sox | 5.7 | 4 | -1.7 | |
| Chase Burns | Cleveland Guardians | 5.7 | 4 | -1.7 | |
| Jack Perkins | Boston Red Sox | 5.4 | 4 | -1.4 | |
| Payton Tolle | Athletics | 5.4 | 7 | +1.6 | |
| George Kirby | Texas Rangers | 5.2 | 3 | -2.2 | |
| Andrew Alvarez | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.1 | 3 | -2.1 | |
| Brandon Sproat | San Francisco Giants | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Kumar Rocker | Seattle Mariners | 5.1 | 7 | +1.9 | |
| Keider Montero | Baltimore Orioles | 5.0 | 1 | -4.0 | |
| Matthew Liberatore | Chicago Cubs | 4.8 | 5 | +0.2 | On Target |
| Walbert Ureña | Houston Astros | 4.8 | 5 | +0.2 | On Target |
| Tatsuya Imai | Los Angeles Angels | 4.7 | 1 | -3.7 | |
| Zac Thornton | Atlanta Braves | 4.6 | 5 | +0.4 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs Max Scherzer | 63.4% | No Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Walbert Ureña | 63.2% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | vs Brandon Sproat | 61.9% | No Hit |
| Paul Goldschmidt | New York Yankees | vs Noah Schultz | 61.7% | Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Matthew Liberatore | 61.7% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Slade Cecconi | 61.7% | Hit |
| James Wood | Washington Nationals | vs Max Scherzer | 61.6% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Tyler Phillips | 61.6% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Tyler Phillips | 61.5% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Tyler Phillips | 61.3% | Hit |
| Tyler Soderstrom | Athletics | vs Payton Tolle | 61.2% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Noah Schultz | 61.2% | Hit |
| Iván Herrera | St. Louis Cardinals | vs David Peterson | 61.0% | Hit |
| Jeremy Peña | — | vs Walbert Ureña | 61.0% | Hit |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Merrill Kelly | 60.8% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Heriberto Hernández — 30.3% HR probability
- Coby Mayo — 29.8% HR probability
- Joc Pederson — 24.1% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Zack Wheeler — proj 5.8, recorded 6
- Payton Tolle — proj 5.4, recorded 7
- Kumar Rocker — proj 5.1, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Keider Montero — proj 5.0, recorded 1
- Tatsuya Imai — proj 4.7, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Heriberto Hernández. Model HR probability 30.3% — result: Home Run.
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