MLB Results

MLB Model Results — July 28, 2026

Home run threat, strikeout, and hit probability results for this MLB slate.

OverviewTop PlaysPitchersAnalytics LabHittersHome Run ThreatsIntelMatchup HistoryWeatherResultsStadiums
← July 27, 2026Back to Results ArchiveJuly 29, 2026 →
Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — July 28, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

16
Games covered
459
Hitters evaluated
32
Pitchers evaluated
July 28, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

RankPlayerTeamMatchupHR ProbabilityResult
#1Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Michael King28.4%No Home Run
#2Jahmai Jones—vs Gage Jump26.1%No Home Run
#3Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs Brandon Pfaadt25.4%Home Run
#4Heriberto Hernández—vs Aaron Nola25.3%No Home Run
#5Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgersvs Luis Castillo25.0%Home Run
#6Zach Neto—vs Peter Lambert25.0%No Home Run
#7Jac CaglianoneKansas City Royalsvs Taj Bradley24.4%No Home Run
#8James WoodWashington Nationalsvs Shane Bieber24.3%No Home Run
#9Yordan AlvarezHouston Astrosvs Reid Detmers24.2%Home Run
#10Coby MayoBaltimore Oriolesvs Troy Melton24.2%No Home Run
#11Kazuma Okamoto—vs Cade Cavalli24.2%Home Run
#12Kyle Manzardo—vs Chase Burns24.1%No Home Run
#13Mickey MoniakColorado Rockiesvs Michael King23.9%Home Run
#14Michael Conforto—vs Unknown Pitcher23.9%No Home Run
#15Colson Montgomery—vs Gerrit Cole23.9%No Home Run
Strikeouts

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

PitcherOpponentProjected KsActual KsDifference
Chris SaleNew York Mets7.39+1.7
Gavin WilliamsCincinnati Reds7.012+5.0
Griffin JaxTexas Rangers6.010+4.0
Christian ScottAtlanta Braves5.97+1.1
Logan HendersonSan Francisco Giants5.77+1.3
Taj BradleyKansas City Royals5.710+4.3
Troy MeltonBaltimore Orioles5.75-0.7On Target
Gage JumpBoston Red Sox5.67+1.4
Reid DetmersHouston Astros5.69+3.4
Peter LambertLos Angeles Angels5.66+0.4On Target
Chase BurnsCleveland Guardians5.54-1.5
Cade CavalliToronto Blue Jays5.53-2.5
Gerrit ColeChicago White Sox5.47+1.6
Dean KremerDetroit Tigers5.24-1.2
Landen RouppMilwaukee Brewers5.11-4.1
Hit Probability

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

PlayerTeamMatchupHit ProbabilityResult
Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgersvs Luis Castillo63.4%Hit
CJ AbramsWashington Nationalsvs Shane Bieber62.6%Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.San Diego Padresvs Michael Lorenzen62.2%Hit
Yordan AlvarezHouston Astrosvs Reid Detmers62.1%Hit
Tyler SoderstromAthleticsvs Jake Bennett61.9%No Hit
Freddie Freeman—vs Luis Castillo61.7%Hit
Paul GoldschmidtNew York Yankeesvs Anthony Kay61.5%No Hit
Elly De La CruzCincinnati Redsvs Slade Cecconi61.4%No Hit
Bryce HarperPhiladelphia Philliesvs Sandy Alcantara61.0%Hit
Ben RiceNew York Yankeesvs Anthony Kay60.8%No Hit
James WoodWashington Nationalsvs Shane Bieber60.8%No Hit
Byron Buxton—vs Seth Lugo60.7%No Hit
Yandy DíazTampa Bay Raysvs Cal Quantrill60.6%No Hit
Randy Arozarena—vs Justin Wrobleski60.6%No Hit
Seiya SuzukiChicago Cubsvs Michael McGreevy60.5%Hit
Model Highlights

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Top Strikeout Calls

Biggest Surprises

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Brandon Lowe. Model HR probability 25.4% — result: Home Run.
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