Home Run Threats are generated from a dedicated power-ranking engine that evaluates batter power, recent form, matchup quality, park factors, pitcher home-run tendencies, and player availability. This board is separate from the EdgeRanked simulation engine.
Top 30 players ranked by dedicated HR Threat Score and power-score components, separate from HR probability.
| Rank | Player | Team | Opponent | Pitcher | HR Threat Score | Power Score | Tier | Confidence | Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yordan Alvarez | HOU | TEX | Jacob deGrom | 66.1 | 80.4 | High | High | Proven HR track recordWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 1.137)+2 more |
| 2 | Hunter Goodman | COL | KC | Luinder Avila | 63.9 | 60.8 | High | High | HR-friendly venueProven HR track recordHigh expected isolated power |
| 3 | Esmerlyn Valdez | PIT | CIN | Andrew Abbott | 63.1 | 62.6 | High | Medium | HR-friendly venueFavorable platoon vs LHP (OPS 1.296)Emerging power signal+2 more |
| 4 | Brandon Lowe | PIT | CIN | Andrew Abbott | 62.5 | 53.5 | High | High | HR-friendly venueProven HR track recordHot recent power form+1 more |
| 5 | Kyle Schwarber | PHI | BAL | Shane Baz | 61.5 | 76.8 | High | High | Proven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.869)Hot recent power form+2 more |
| 6 | Shohei Ohtani | LAD | BOS | Payton Tolle | 61.3 | 69.7 | High | High | Hot recent power formFavorable platoon vs LHP (OPS 0.920)Proven HR track record+2 more |
| 7 | CJ Abrams | WSH | ATL | Reynaldo López | 60.5 | 60.3 | High | High | Weak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Proven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.999)+1 more |
| 8 | Mickey Moniak | COL | KC | Luinder Avila | 60.4 | 57.9 | High | High | HR-friendly venueProven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.948) |
| 9 | James Wood | WSH | ATL | Reynaldo López | 60.0 | 63.3 | High | High | Proven HR track recordWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.995)+1 more |
| 10 | Salvador Perez | KC | COL | Ryan Feltner | 59.1 | 47.4 | High | High | HR-friendly venueWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Proven HR track record+2 more |
| 11 | Matt Olson | ATL | WSH | Miles Mikolas | 59.0 | 61.5 | High | High | Proven HR track recordWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.895)+1 more |
| 12 | Drake Baldwin | ATL | WSH | Miles Mikolas | 58.9 | 58.9 | High | High | Proven HR track recordWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.912)+1 more |
| 13 | Cole Carrigg | COL | KC | Luinder Avila | 58.4 | 54.0 | High | Low | HR-friendly venueFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.936)Emerging power signal+1 more |
| 14 | Elly De La Cruz | CIN | PIT | Braxton Ashcraft | 58.2 | 57.7 | High | High | HR-friendly venueProven HR track recordHot recent power form+2 more |
| 15 | Bryce Harper | PHI | BAL | Shane Baz | 57.5 | 65.8 | Medium | High | Proven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.986)High expected isolated power+1 more |
| 16 | Bryan Reynolds | PIT | CIN | Andrew Abbott | 57.4 | 46.5 | Medium | High | HR-friendly venueFavorable platoon vs LHP (OPS 0.861)High expected isolated power |
| 17 | John Rave | KC | COL | Ryan Feltner | 57.3 | 49.2 | Medium | Low | HR-friendly venueWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.890)+1 more |
| 18 | Junior Caminero | TB | CWS | Jordan Hicks | 57.1 | 63.1 | Medium | High | Proven HR track recordAbove-average hard contactHR track record |
| 19 | Ben Rice | NYY | CHC | David Peterson | 56.8 | 65.1 | Medium | High | Proven HR track recordHR track recordRecent form |
| 20 | Derek Hill | PHI | BAL | Shane Baz | 56.4 | 56.6 | Medium | High | Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 1.073)High expected isolated powerElite barrel rate |
| 21 | Tyler Callihan | PIT | CIN | Andrew Abbott | 56.3 | 62.4 | Medium | Low | HR-friendly venueFavorable platoon vs LHP (OPS 1.300)Emerging power signal+1 more |
| 22 | Munetaka Murakami | CWS | TB | Drew Rasmussen | 56.2 | 68.1 | Medium | High | Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 1.034)High expected isolated powerAbove-average hard contact |
| 23 | Carter Jensen | KC | COL | Ryan Feltner | 56.1 | 47.4 | Medium | High | HR-friendly venueWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Proven HR track record+1 more |
| 24 | Paul Goldschmidt | NYY | CHC | David Peterson | 56.0 | 59.8 | Medium | High | Favorable platoon vs LHP (OPS 1.018)Proven HR track recordHigh expected isolated power |
| 25 | Lane Thomas | KC | COL | Ryan Feltner | 55.9 | 39.2 | Medium | High | HR-friendly venueWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Park/weather context |
| 26 | Tyler Soderstrom | ATH | DET | Framber Valdez | 55.7 | 52.7 | Medium | High | HR-friendly venueHigh expected isolated powerTop-end exit velocity+1 more |
| 27 | Tyler Tolbert | KC | COL | Ryan Feltner | 55.7 | 42.2 | Medium | Medium | HR-friendly venueWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.907)+1 more |
| 28 | Seiya Suzuki | CHC | NYY | Max Fried | 55.7 | 60.5 | Medium | High | Favorable platoon vs LHP (OPS 0.978)Proven HR track recordHigh expected isolated power |
| 29 | TJ Rumfield | COL | KC | Luinder Avila | 55.6 | 50.2 | Medium | High | HR-friendly venueFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.908)Above-average hard contact |
| 30 | Luke Maile | KC | COL | Ryan Feltner | 55.3 | 44.8 | Medium | Low | HR-friendly venueWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Park/weather context |
These hitters are receiving a stronger-than-normal home run outlook today due to favorable matchup, weather, stadium, and pitcher conditions. Players on this board meet minimum power thresholds and are not already featured among today’s top Home Run Threats.
| Rank | Player | Team | Opponent | Pitcher | HR Boost | Power Skill | HR Env | Confidence | Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jac Caglianone | KC | COL | Ryan Feltner | 12.3 | 40.0 | 91.0 | High | Big day-over-baseline boostHR-friendly conditions todayHR-friendly venue+2 more |
| 2 | Jose Altuve | HOU | TEX | Jacob deGrom | 12.1 | 40.1 | 78.8 | High | Big day-over-baseline boostHR-friendly conditions todayWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)+2 more |
| 3 | Yainer Diaz | HOU | TEX | Jacob deGrom | 10.5 | 41.7 | 78.8 | High | Big day-over-baseline boostHR-friendly conditions todayWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)+2 more |
| 4 | Isaac Paredes | HOU | TEX | Jacob deGrom | 10.3 | 40.7 | 78.8 | High | Big day-over-baseline boostHR-friendly conditions todayWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)+2 more |
| 5 | Carter Jensen | KC | COL | Ryan Feltner | 10.2 | 42.5 | 91.0 | High | Big day-over-baseline boostHR-friendly conditions todayHR-friendly venue+2 more |
| 6 | Luis García Jr. | WSH | ATL | Reynaldo López | 9.7 | 43.9 | 63.3 | High | Big day-over-baseline boostWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.911)+1 more |
| 7 | TJ Rumfield | COL | KC | Luinder Avila | 9.2 | 41.7 | 66.0 | High | Big day-over-baseline boostHR-friendly conditions todayHR-friendly venue+2 more |
| 8 | Nathaniel Lowe | CIN | PIT | Braxton Ashcraft | 8.6 | 43.9 | 69.0 | High | Big day-over-baseline boostHR-friendly conditions todayHR-friendly venue+2 more |
| 9 | Willi Castro | COL | KC | Luinder Avila | 8.0 | 41.0 | 63.4 | High | Big day-over-baseline boostHR-friendly venueTop-end exit velocity+1 more |
| 10 | Ty France | SD | SF | Tyler Mahle | 8.0 | 40.0 | 49.5 | High | Big day-over-baseline boostWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.871)+1 more |
| 11 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | ATL | WSH | Miles Mikolas | 7.4 | 41.3 | 67.3 | High | HR-friendly conditions todayWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.866)+2 more |
| 12 | Wyatt Langford | TEX | HOU | Ronel Blanco | 7.0 | 42.5 | 66.3 | High | HR-friendly conditions todayHR-friendly venuePark/weather context+1 more |
| 13 | Willson Contreras | BOS | LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 6.8 | 44.5 | 53.4 | High | Proven HR track recordFavorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.929)Matchup power edge |
| 14 | Michael Harris II | ATL | WSH | Miles Mikolas | 6.0 | 46.8 | 67.3 | High | HR-friendly conditions todayWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Proven HR track record+1 more |
| 15 | Ozzie Albies | ATL | WSH | Miles Mikolas | 5.8 | 42.1 | 67.3 | High | HR-friendly conditions todayWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable pitcher matchup+1 more |
| 16 | Ceddanne Rafaela | BOS | LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 5.7 | 40.8 | 53.4 | High | Pitcher matchupPark/weather contextHR track record |
| 17 | Ryan Jeffers | MIN | SEA | Logan Gilbert | 5.7 | 41.5 | 44.4 | High | Proven HR track recordWeak HR-suppressing pitcher (high HR/9)Favorable platoon vs RHP (OPS 0.940)+2 more |
| 18 | Ryan O'Hearn | PIT | CIN | Andrew Abbott | 5.3 | 45.8 | 73.3 | High | HR-friendly conditions todayHR-friendly venueProven HR track record+1 more |
| 19 | Gabriel Moreno | ARI | CLE | Parker Messick | 5.0 | 40.8 | 40.8 | High | Recent formMatchup power edgeHR track record |
| 20 | Sal Stewart | CIN | PIT | Braxton Ashcraft | 4.8 | 47.7 | 65.1 | High | HR-friendly conditions todayHR-friendly venueAbove-average hard contact+1 more |