MLB Results — July 26, 2026

Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — July 26, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Games covered

396

Hitters evaluated

Pitchers evaluated

July 26, 2026

Slate date

Home Run Threats

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rank	Player	Team	Matchup	HR Probability	Result
#1	Coby Mayo	Baltimore Orioles	vs Reynaldo López	30.8%	No Home Run
#2	Royce Lewis	Minnesota Twins	vs Jeffrey Springs	28.6%	No Home Run
#3	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	vs Jacob Misiorowski	28.4%	No Home Run
#4	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Jameson Taillon	27.7%	No Home Run
#5	Byron Buxton	—	vs Jeffrey Springs	26.7%	No Home Run
#6	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Will Warren	26.6%	No Home Run
#7	Luke Raley	—	vs Jacob deGrom	25.2%	No Home Run
#8	Zach Neto	—	vs Carson Whisenhunt	25.0%	No Home Run
#9	Joc Pederson	Texas Rangers	vs Logan Gilbert	24.4%	No Home Run
#10	Kazuma Okamoto	—	vs Ranger Suarez	24.2%	No Home Run
#11	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Erick Fedde	24.2%	No Home Run
#12	Salvador Perez	Kansas City Royals	vs Framber Valdez	24.2%	No Home Run
#13	Francisco Lindor	—	vs Emmet Sheehan	24.1%	No Home Run
#14	Jordan Walker	—	vs Andrew Abbott	24.1%	No Home Run
#15	Mickey Moniak	Colorado Rockies	vs Jacob Misiorowski	23.9%	No Home Run

Strikeouts

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Pitcher	Opponent	Projected Ks	Actual Ks	Difference
Jacob Misiorowski	Colorado Rockies	8.1	12	+3.9
Logan Gilbert	Texas Rangers	7.1	4	-3.1
Jacob deGrom	Seattle Mariners	6.8	4	-2.8
Cristopher Sánchez	New York Yankees	6.1	6	-0.1	On Target
Braxton Ashcraft	Chicago Cubs	5.7	5	-0.7	On Target
Ronel Blanco	Chicago White Sox	5.6	4	-1.6
Ranger Suarez	Toronto Blue Jays	5.3	6	+0.7	On Target
Emmet Sheehan	New York Mets	5.3	5	-0.3	On Target
Drew Rasmussen	Cleveland Guardians	5.2	9	+3.8
Kevin Gausman	Boston Red Sox	5.1	6	+0.9	On Target
Parker Messick	Tampa Bay Rays	5.1	6	+0.9	On Target
José Soriano	San Francisco Giants	5.1	5	-0.1	On Target
Connor Prielipp	Athletics	4.9	5	+0.1	On Target
Will Warren	Philadelphia Phillies	4.6	5	+0.4	On Target
Shane Baz	Atlanta Braves	4.5	2	-2.5

Hit Probability

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Player	Team	Matchup	Hit Probability	Result
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	vs Freddy Peralta	64.5%	Hit
Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Erick Fedde	64.5%	No Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	vs Janson Junk	63.2%	No Hit
Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	vs José Soriano	62.0%	No Hit
CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	vs Kohl Drake	61.8%	Hit
Byron Buxton	—	vs Jeffrey Springs	61.7%	No Hit
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	vs Kyle Leahy	61.7%	Hit
Freddie Freeman	—	vs Freddy Peralta	61.5%	Hit
Kyle Stowers	Miami Marlins	vs Walker Buehler	61.4%	Hit
Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Will Warren	61.3%	Hit
Zach Neto	—	vs Carson Whisenhunt	61.3%	No Hit
Tyler Soderstrom	Athletics	vs Connor Prielipp	61.2%	Hit
Brett Baty	New York Mets	vs Emmet Sheehan	61.1%	No Hit
Andrew Vaughn	—	vs Kyle Freeland	60.9%	Hit
Iván Herrera	St. Louis Cardinals	vs Andrew Abbott	60.5%	Hit

Model Highlights

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Marcus Semien. Model HR probability 23.8% — result: Home Run.

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