Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 25, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
17
Games covered
438
Hitters evaluated
33
Pitchers evaluated
July 25, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Ryan Weathers | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Randy Vásquez | 30.7% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Robert Gasser | 28.4% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Sean Burke | 28.0% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Zach Neto | — | vs Robbie Ray | 27.1% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Luke Raley | — | vs Nathan Eovaldi | 25.4% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Byron Buxton | — | vs Brady Basso | 25.3% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Jac Caglianone | Kansas City Royals | vs Casey Mize | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Royce Lewis | Minnesota Twins | vs Brady Basso | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Kazuma Okamoto | — | vs Sonny Gray | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #11 | James Wood | Washington Nationals | vs Mitch Bratt | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Esmerlyn Valdez | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Shota Imanaga | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Joc Pederson | Texas Rangers | vs Bryan Woo | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Michael Conforto | — | vs Paul Skenes | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Randy Vásquez | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | Boston Red Sox | 8.5 | 12 | +3.5 | |
| Paul Skenes | Chicago Cubs | 6.9 | 11 | +4.1 | |
| Eury Pérez | San Diego Padres | 6.3 | 2 | -4.3 | |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | New York Mets | 5.8 | 5 | -0.8 | On Target |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Seattle Mariners | 5.8 | 8 | +2.2 | |
| Hunter Greene | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.8 | 3 | -2.8 | |
| Ryan Weathers | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 | |
| Nolan McLean | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 | |
| Casey Mize | Kansas City Royals | 5.6 | 3 | -2.6 | |
| Bryan Woo | Texas Rangers | 5.6 | 5 | -0.6 | On Target |
| Sean Burke | Houston Astros | 5.5 | 10 | +4.5 | |
| Shota Imanaga | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Sonny Gray | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.1 | 3 | -2.1 | |
| Foster Griffin | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.1 | 2 | -3.1 | |
| Robert Gasser | Colorado Rockies | 4.9 | 4 | -0.9 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Sean Burke | 62.0% | No Hit |
| Tyler Soderstrom | Athletics | vs Mike Paredes | 61.9% | Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Nolan McLean | 61.8% | No Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs Mitch Bratt | 61.3% | Hit |
| Elly De La Cruz | Cincinnati Reds | vs Andre Pallante | 61.2% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Eury Pérez | 61.0% | No Hit |
| Byron Buxton | — | vs Brady Basso | 61.0% | No Hit |
| Nick Kurtz | Athletics | vs Mike Paredes | 60.8% | No Hit |
| Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | vs Ryan Johnson | 60.7% | Hit |
| Paul Goldschmidt | New York Yankees | vs Tim Mayza | 60.7% | Hit |
| Bryan De La Cruz | — | vs Ryan Weathers | 60.7% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Ryan Weathers | 60.5% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Ryan Weathers | 60.5% | Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Tim Mayza | 60.5% | No Hit |
| Brett Baty | New York Mets | vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 60.5% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Salvador Perez — 23.9% HR probability
- Rafael Devers — 18.1% HR probability
- Gunnar Henderson — 17.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Dylan Cease — proj 8.5, recorded 12
- Paul Skenes — proj 6.9, recorded 11
- Nathan Eovaldi — proj 5.8, recorded 8
Biggest Surprises
- Sean Burke — proj 5.5, recorded 10
- Eury Pérez — proj 6.3, recorded 2
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Salvador Perez. Model HR probability 23.9% — result: Home Run.
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