MLB Results — July 30, 2026

Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — July 30, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Games covered

263

Hitters evaluated

Pitchers evaluated

July 30, 2026

Slate date

Home Run Threats

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rank	Player	Team	Matchup	HR Probability	Result
#1	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Rhett Lowder	31.1%	Home Run
#2	Royce Lewis	Minnesota Twins	vs Noah Cameron	28.6%	No Home Run
#3	Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	vs Bailey Ober	26.6%	Home Run
#4	Luke Raley	—	vs Roki Sasaki	26.0%	No Home Run
#5	Munetaka Murakami	—	vs Ryan Weathers	24.3%	No Home Run
#6	Colson Montgomery	—	vs Ryan Weathers	24.2%	No Home Run
#7	Salvador Perez	Kansas City Royals	vs Bailey Ober	24.2%	No Home Run
#8	James Wood	Washington Nationals	vs Grant Holmes	24.1%	No Home Run
#9	Cal Raleigh	—	vs Roki Sasaki	23.9%	No Home Run
#10	Francisco Lindor	—	vs Eury Pérez	23.9%	No Home Run
#11	Heriberto Hernández	—	vs Nolan McLean	23.9%	No Home Run
#12	Andrew Benintendi	—	vs Ryan Weathers	23.9%	No Home Run
#13	Miguel Vargas	—	vs Ryan Weathers	23.8%	No Home Run
#14	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	vs Yohan Ramírez	23.8%	No Home Run
#15	Michael Conforto	—	vs Andre Pallante	23.2%	No Home Run

Strikeouts

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Pitcher	Opponent	Projected Ks	Actual Ks	Difference
Eury Pérez	New York Mets	5.7	6	+0.3	On Target
Nolan McLean	Miami Marlins	5.7	6	+0.3	On Target
Sean Burke	New York Yankees	5.5	10	+4.5
Roki Sasaki	Seattle Mariners	5.4	7	+1.6
Bryan Woo	Los Angeles Dodgers	5.1	8	+2.9
Jake Irvin	Atlanta Braves	5.1	1	-4.1
Sonny Gray	Athletics	5.1	5	-0.1	On Target
JP Sears	San Francisco Giants	4.5	2	-2.5
Ryan Weathers	Chicago White Sox	4.5	4	-0.5	On Target
Shane McClanahan	Texas Rangers	4.5	3	-1.5
Noah Cameron	Minnesota Twins	4.5	7	+2.5
Andre Pallante	Chicago Cubs	4.3	3	-1.3
Grant Holmes	Washington Nationals	4.2	4	-0.2	On Target
Javier Assad	St. Louis Cardinals	4.2	6	+1.8
Rhett Lowder	Pittsburgh Pirates	4.1	5	+0.9	On Target

Hit Probability

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Player	Team	Matchup	Hit Probability	Result
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	vs Unknown Pitcher	63.0%	Hit
Tyler Soderstrom	Athletics	vs Sonny Gray	63.0%	No Hit
Seiya Suzuki	Chicago Cubs	vs Andre Pallante	62.2%	No Hit
Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	vs JP Sears	62.1%	Hit
Freddie Freeman	—	vs Bryan Woo	60.9%	Hit
Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay Rays	vs Cole Winn	60.8%	Hit
Alec Burleson	—	vs Javier Assad	60.5%	Hit
CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	vs Grant Holmes	60.5%	No Hit
James Wood	Washington Nationals	vs Grant Holmes	60.4%	No Hit
Randy Arozarena	—	vs Roki Sasaki	60.2%	Hit
Heliot Ramos	—	vs JP Sears	60.1%	Hit
Nick Kurtz	Athletics	vs Sonny Gray	60.1%	No Hit
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	vs Yohan Ramírez	59.9%	Hit
Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Rhett Lowder	59.7%	Hit
Pete Crow-Armstrong	—	vs Andre Pallante	59.7%	Hit

Model Highlights

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Brandon Lowe. Model HR probability 31.1% — result: Home Run.

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