MLB Results

MLB Model Results — July 29, 2026

Home run threat, strikeout, and hit probability results for this MLB slate.

OverviewTop PlaysPitchersAnalytics LabHittersHome Run ThreatsIntelMatchup HistoryWeatherResultsStadiums
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Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — July 29, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

17
Games covered
446
Hitters evaluated
34
Pitchers evaluated
July 29, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

RankPlayerTeamMatchupHR ProbabilityResult
#1Heriberto Hernández—vs Jesús Luzardo31.0%Home Run
#2Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs Eduardo Rodriguez30.1%No Home Run
#3Coby MayoBaltimore Oriolesvs Tarik Skubal30.0%No Home Run
#4Kazuma Okamoto—vs Zack Littell28.4%No Home Run
#5Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Kyle Hart28.0%No Home Run
#6Jac CaglianoneKansas City Royalsvs Joe Ryan27.4%No Home Run
#7Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Unknown Pitcher26.6%No Home Run
#8Yordan AlvarezHouston Astrosvs Grayson Rodriguez26.5%No Home Run
#9Jahmai Jones—vs Jacob Lopez26.1%Home Run
#10Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgersvs Emerson Hancock25.2%No Home Run
#11Salvador PerezKansas City Royalsvs Joe Ryan25.2%No Home Run
#12Luke Raley—vs Eric Lauer25.2%No Home Run
#13Elly De La CruzCincinnati Redsvs Joey Cantillo24.2%No Home Run
#14James WoodWashington Nationalsvs Trey Yesavage24.1%No Home Run
#15Colson Montgomery—vs Cam Schlittler24.0%No Home Run
Strikeouts

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

PitcherOpponentProjected KsActual KsDifference
Tarik SkubalBaltimore Orioles8.06-2.0
Chris SaleNew York Mets7.39+1.7
Joe RyanKansas City Royals6.24-2.2
Christian ScottAtlanta Braves5.97+1.1
Jesús LuzardoMiami Marlins5.65-0.6On Target
Cam SchlittlerChicago White Sox5.68+2.4
Hayden WesneskiLos Angeles Angels5.64-1.6
Gabriel HughesSan Diego Padres5.62-3.6
Jared JonesArizona Diamondbacks5.55-0.5On Target
Joey CantilloCincinnati Reds5.48+2.6
Trey YesavageWashington Nationals5.24-1.2
MacKenzie GoreTampa Bay Rays5.29+3.8
Thomas PannoneSan Francisco Giants5.12-3.1
Emerson HancockLos Angeles Dodgers5.15-0.1On Target
Dustin MayChicago Cubs5.13-2.1
Hit Probability

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

PlayerTeamMatchupHit ProbabilityResult
Yordan AlvarezHouston Astrosvs Grayson Rodriguez64.5%No Hit
Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgersvs Emerson Hancock64.4%Hit
Elly De La CruzCincinnati Redsvs Joey Cantillo62.4%No Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.San Diego Padresvs Gabriel Hughes61.9%Hit
Bryce HarperPhiladelphia Philliesvs Ryan Gusto61.7%Hit
Randy Arozarena—vs Eric Lauer61.3%No Hit
Tyler SoderstromAthleticsvs Patrick Sandoval61.3%No Hit
CJ AbramsWashington Nationalsvs Trey Yesavage61.2%No Hit
Freddie Freeman—vs Emerson Hancock61.0%Hit
Bryan ReynoldsPittsburgh Piratesvs Eduardo Rodriguez61.0%Hit
Ben RiceNew York Yankeesvs Davis Martin60.9%Hit
Trevor Larnach—vs Randy Dobnak60.6%No Hit
Julio Rodríguez—vs Eric Lauer60.6%No Hit
Wilyer Abreu—vs Jacob Lopez60.5%No Hit
Dominic Canzone—vs Eric Lauer60.4%Hit
Model Highlights

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Top Strikeout Calls

Biggest Surprises

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Heriberto Hernández. Model HR probability 31.0% — result: Home Run.
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Related MLB Pages

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