MLB Results — July 31, 2026

Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — July 31, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Games covered

451

Hitters evaluated

Pitchers evaluated

July 31, 2026

Slate date

Home Run Threats

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rank	Player	Team	Matchup	HR Probability	Result
#1	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	vs Michael Wacha	31.1%	No Home Run
#2	Coby Mayo	Baltimore Orioles	vs Andrew Painter	31.0%	No Home Run
#3	Heriberto Hernández	—	vs Freddy Peralta	30.0%	No Home Run
#4	Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	vs Tomoyuki Sugano	29.0%	No Home Run
#5	Salvador Perez	Kansas City Royals	vs Tomoyuki Sugano	29.0%	No Home Run
#6	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Nathan Eovaldi	28.4%	No Home Run
#7	Heriberto Hernández	—	vs Kodai Senga	27.3%	No Home Run
#8	Jackson Merrill	—	vs Carson Whisenhunt	26.4%	No Home Run
#9	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Hunter Greene	26.2%	No Home Run
#10	Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	vs Carson Whisenhunt	26.2%	No Home Run
#11	Zach Neto	—	vs Shane Drohan	25.0%	No Home Run
#12	Austin Riley	Atlanta Braves	vs Foster Griffin	25.0%	No Home Run
#13	Mickey Moniak	Colorado Rockies	vs Michael Wacha	24.9%	No Home Run
#14	Kazuma Okamoto	—	vs Kyle Leahy	24.4%	No Home Run
#15	Pete Alonso	—	vs Andrew Painter	24.4%	Home Run

Strikeouts

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Pitcher	Opponent	Projected Ks	Actual Ks	Difference
Hunter Greene	Pittsburgh Pirates	7.3	4	-3.3
Paul Skenes	Cincinnati Reds	7.1	7	-0.1	On Target
Nathan Eovaldi	Houston Astros	5.8	5	-0.8	On Target
Dylan Cease	St. Louis Cardinals	5.8	7	+1.2
Shane Drohan	Los Angeles Angels	5.6	7	+1.4
Ranger Suarez	Los Angeles Dodgers	5.4	2	-3.4
Shota Imanaga	New York Yankees	5.4	6	+0.6	On Target
Hunter Brown	Texas Rangers	5.3	5	-0.3	On Target
Foster Griffin	Atlanta Braves	5.2	3	-2.2
Kodai Senga	Miami Marlins	5.1	4	-1.1
Bryce Elder	Washington Nationals	5.0	3	-2.0
Brandon Young	Philadelphia Phillies	4.5	5	+0.5	On Target
Zebby Matthews	Seattle Mariners	4.5	10	+5.5
Bryce Miller	Minnesota Twins	4.5	3	-1.5
Will Warren	Chicago Cubs	4.5	7	+2.5

Hit Probability

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Player	Team	Matchup	Hit Probability	Result
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	vs Ranger Suarez	64.5%	Hit
Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Brandon Young	62.3%	Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	vs Carson Whisenhunt	62.3%	Hit
Kyle Stowers	Miami Marlins	vs Kodai Senga	62.3%	Hit
Brett Baty	New York Mets	vs Janson Junk	62.2%	No Hit
Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Nathan Eovaldi	62.2%	Hit
Enrique Hernández	—	vs Ranger Suarez	62.2%	Hit
CJ Abrams	Washington Nationals	vs Bryce Elder	62.1%	Hit
Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay Rays	vs Erick Fedde	62.0%	Hit
Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Brandon Young	61.9%	No Hit
Tyler Soderstrom	Athletics	vs Tyler Holton	61.8%	No Hit
Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	vs Bradgley Rodriguez	61.7%	No Hit
Mickey Moniak	Colorado Rockies	vs Michael Wacha	61.6%	Hit
James Wood	Washington Nationals	vs Bryce Elder	61.6%	Hit
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	vs Paul Skenes	61.5%	Hit

Model Highlights

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Pete Alonso. Model HR probability 24.4% — result: Home Run.

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