MLB Results

MLB Model Results — July 17, 2026

Home run threat, strikeout, and hit probability results for this MLB slate.

OverviewTop PlaysPitchersAnalytics LabHittersHome Run ThreatsIntelMatchup HistoryWeatherResultsStadiums
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Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — July 17, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

15
Games covered
399
Hitters evaluated
30
Pitchers evaluated
July 17, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

RankPlayerTeamMatchupHR ProbabilityResult
#1Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Brady Singer31.6%No Home Run
#2Mickey MoniakColorado Rockiesvs Brady Singer31.1%No Home Run
#3Kazuma Okamoto—vs Anthony Kay31.0%No Home Run
#4Coby MayoBaltimore Oriolesvs Peter Lambert27.3%No Home Run
#5Yordan AlvarezHouston Astrosvs Dean Kremer27.0%No Home Run
#6Jac CaglianoneKansas City Royalsvs Michael King26.6%No Home Run
#7James WoodWashington Nationalsvs Gage Jump26.6%No Home Run
#8Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs Gavin Williams25.0%No Home Run
#9Michael Conforto—vs Bailey Ober25.0%No Home Run
#10Royce LewisMinnesota Twinsvs Colin Rea24.8%No Home Run
#11Elly De La CruzCincinnati Redsvs Gabriel Hughes24.4%Home Run
#12Salvador PerezKansas City Royalsvs Michael King24.2%No Home Run
#13Matt OlsonAtlanta Bravesvs Cal Quantrill24.1%Home Run
#14Heliot Ramos—vs Bryce Miller24.1%No Home Run
#15Carter JensenKansas City Royalsvs Michael King23.9%No Home Run
Strikeouts

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

PitcherOpponentProjected KsActual KsDifference
Chris SaleTexas Rangers6.66-0.6On Target
Gavin WilliamsPittsburgh Pirates6.411+4.6
Reid DetmersDetroit Tigers6.37+0.7On Target
Logan HendersonMiami Marlins5.74-1.7
Jared JonesCleveland Guardians5.69+3.4
Troy MeltonLos Angeles Angels5.59+3.5
Landen RouppSeattle Mariners5.42-3.4
Griffin JaxBoston Red Sox5.46+0.6On Target
Bryce MillerSan Francisco Giants5.46+0.6On Target
Peter LambertBaltimore Orioles5.310+4.7
Dean KremerHouston Astros5.35-0.3On Target
Gerrit ColeLos Angeles Dodgers4.98+3.1
Gage JumpWashington Nationals4.98+3.1
Gabriel HughesCincinnati Reds4.96+1.1
Cal QuantrillAtlanta Braves4.23-1.2
Hit Probability

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

PlayerTeamMatchupHit ProbabilityResult
Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgersvs Gerrit Cole63.5%No Hit
Ben RiceNew York Yankeesvs Roki Sasaki63.0%Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.San Diego Padresvs Seth Lugo62.3%Hit
Yordan AlvarezHouston Astrosvs Dean Kremer62.2%Hit
Elly De La CruzCincinnati Redsvs Gabriel Hughes61.6%Hit
TJ Rumfield—vs Brady Singer61.4%Hit
Mickey MoniakColorado Rockiesvs Brady Singer61.3%No Hit
Seiya SuzukiChicago Cubsvs Bailey Ober61.3%Hit
Jake McCarthy—vs Brady Singer61.1%Hit
Tyler SoderstromAthleticsvs Cade Cavalli60.9%Hit
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Toronto Blue Jaysvs Anthony Kay60.9%Hit
Jake BauersMilwaukee Brewersvs Sandy Alcantara60.9%No Hit
Trevor Larnach—vs Colin Rea60.8%Hit
Bobby Witt Jr.—vs Michael King60.7%No Hit
Freddie Freeman—vs Gerrit Cole60.7%No Hit
Model Highlights

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Top Strikeout Calls

Biggest Surprises

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Elly De La Cruz. Model HR probability 24.4% — result: Home Run.
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