Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 16, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
1
Games covered
26
Hitters evaluated
2
Pitchers evaluated
July 16, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Christian Scott | 28.4% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Francisco Lindor | — | vs Aaron Nola | 17.9% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Juan Soto | — | vs Aaron Nola | 17.7% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Christian Scott | 16.8% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Tyrone Taylor | — | vs Aaron Nola | 16.7% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Jared Young | — | vs Aaron Nola | 15.3% | No Home Run |
| #7 | A.J. Ewing | — | vs Aaron Nola | 13.2% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Carson Benge | — | vs Aaron Nola | 12.9% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Christian Scott | 12.4% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Francisco Alvarez | — | vs Aaron Nola | 12.2% | Home Run |
| #11 | Bo Bichette | New York Mets | vs Aaron Nola | 11.6% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Trea Turner | — | vs Christian Scott | 10.9% | Home Run |
| #13 | Gabriel Rincones Jr. | — | vs Christian Scott | 10.6% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Bryson Stott | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Christian Scott | 10.6% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Jorge Polanco | — | vs Aaron Nola | 10.6% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Scott | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.6 | 7 | +1.4 | |
| Aaron Nola | New York Mets | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | — | vs Aaron Nola | 61.6% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Christian Scott | 61.1% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Christian Scott | 60.3% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Christian Scott | 59.0% | Hit |
| A.J. Ewing | — | vs Aaron Nola | 58.9% | Hit |
| Brett Baty | New York Mets | vs Aaron Nola | 58.9% | Hit |
| Bo Bichette | New York Mets | vs Aaron Nola | 58.1% | No Hit |
| Carson Benge | — | vs Aaron Nola | 56.8% | Hit |
| Francisco Lindor | — | vs Aaron Nola | 56.3% | No Hit |
| Francisco Alvarez | — | vs Aaron Nola | 55.7% | Hit |
| Trea Turner | — | vs Christian Scott | 55.6% | Hit |
| Jared Young | — | vs Aaron Nola | 55.5% | No Hit |
| Bryson Stott | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Christian Scott | 55.2% | No Hit |
| J.T. Realmuto | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Christian Scott | 54.4% | Hit |
| Jorge Polanco | — | vs Aaron Nola | 54.3% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Francisco Alvarez — 12.2% HR probability
- Trea Turner — 10.9% HR probability
- Brett Baty — 5.7% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Christian Scott — proj 5.6, recorded 7
- Aaron Nola — proj 5.2, recorded 6
Biggest Surprises
- Christian Scott — proj 5.6, recorded 7
- Aaron Nola — proj 5.2, recorded 6
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Francisco Alvarez. Model HR probability 12.2% — result: Home Run.
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