MLB Results — July 18, 2026

Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — July 18, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Games covered

421

Hitters evaluated

Pitchers evaluated

July 18, 2026

Slate date

Home Run Threats

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rank	Player	Team	Matchup	HR Probability	Result
#1	Heriberto Hernández	—	vs Shane Drohan	30.9%	No Home Run
#2	Coby Mayo	Baltimore Orioles	vs Spencer Arrighetti	30.8%	No Home Run
#3	Mickey Moniak	Colorado Rockies	vs Rhett Lowder	30.3%	No Home Run
#4	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Trevor Rogers	26.6%	No Home Run
#5	Zach Neto	—	vs Tarik Skubal	26.1%	No Home Run
#6	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	vs Ryan Weathers	25.4%	No Home Run
#7	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Gavin Williams	25.0%	No Home Run
#8	Jackson Merrill	—	vs Randy Dobnak	25.0%	No Home Run
#9	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Sean Manaea	24.4%	Home Run
#10	Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	vs Griffin Canning	24.4%	No Home Run
#11	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	vs Tomoyuki Sugano	24.3%	No Home Run
#12	Kazuma Okamoto	—	vs Davis Martin	24.1%	No Home Run
#13	Francisco Lindor	—	vs Jesús Luzardo	23.9%	No Home Run
#14	Salvador Perez	Kansas City Royals	vs Griffin Canning	23.9%	Home Run
#15	Ketel Marte	—	vs Dustin May	23.9%	No Home Run

Strikeouts

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Pitcher	Opponent	Projected Ks	Actual Ks	Difference
Tarik Skubal	Los Angeles Angels	7.3	9	+1.7
Jared Jones	Cleveland Guardians	6.0	9	+3.0
Max Meyer	Milwaukee Brewers	5.6	5	-0.6	On Target
MacKenzie Gore	Atlanta Braves	5.6	7	+1.4
Jesús Luzardo	New York Mets	5.6	7	+1.4
Gavin Williams	Pittsburgh Pirates	5.4	11	+5.6
Patrick Sandoval	Tampa Bay Rays	5.1	5	-0.1	On Target
Sean Manaea	Philadelphia Phillies	4.9	7	+2.1
Matthew Boyd	Minnesota Twins	4.9	4	-0.9	On Target
Shane Drohan	Miami Marlins	4.9	9	+4.1
Spencer Arrighetti	Baltimore Orioles	4.9	6	+1.1
Bryan Woo	San Francisco Giants	4.9	7	+2.1
Griffin Canning	Kansas City Royals	4.5	4	-0.5	On Target
Dustin May	Arizona Diamondbacks	4.3	6	+1.7
Taj Bradley	Chicago Cubs	4.2	6	+1.8

Hit Probability

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Player	Team	Matchup	Hit Probability	Result
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	vs Tomoyuki Sugano	64.5%	Hit
Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Trevor Rogers	63.0%	Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	vs Randy Dobnak	63.0%	Hit
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	vs Ryan Weathers	62.8%	Hit
Edouard Julien	Colorado Rockies	vs Rhett Lowder	62.6%	Hit
JJ Bleday	—	vs Tomoyuki Sugano	62.3%	Hit
TJ Rumfield	—	vs Rhett Lowder	62.2%	Hit
Juan Soto	—	vs Jesús Luzardo	62.1%	No Hit
Mickey Moniak	Colorado Rockies	vs Rhett Lowder	62.0%	Hit
Jake McCarthy	—	vs Rhett Lowder	61.9%	Hit
Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Sean Manaea	61.8%	Hit
Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Sean Manaea	61.8%	Hit
Spencer Steer	—	vs Tomoyuki Sugano	61.8%	Hit
Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay Rays	vs Patrick Sandoval	61.7%	Hit
Willi Castro	Colorado Rockies	vs Rhett Lowder	61.5%	Hit

Model Highlights

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kyle Schwarber. Model HR probability 24.4% — result: Home Run.

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