MLB Results — July 12, 2026

Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — July 12, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Games covered

406

Hitters evaluated

Pitchers evaluated

July 12, 2026

Slate date

Home Run Threats

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rank	Player	Team	Matchup	HR Probability	Result
#1	Heriberto Hernández	—	vs Joey Cantillo	31.1%	No Home Run
#2	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Robert Gasser	30.8%	No Home Run
#3	Jackson Merrill	—	vs Kevin Gausman	30.1%	No Home Run
#4	Coby Mayo	Baltimore Orioles	vs Seth Lugo	27.3%	No Home Run
#5	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	vs Trevor McDonald	26.5%	No Home Run
#6	Heliot Ramos	—	vs Michael Lorenzen	24.4%	No Home Run
#7	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Tarik Skubal	24.2%	No Home Run
#8	Royce Lewis	Minnesota Twins	vs José Soriano	24.2%	No Home Run
#9	Colson Montgomery	—	vs J.T. Ginn	24.1%	No Home Run
#10	Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	vs Shane Baz	24.1%	No Home Run
#11	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs MacKenzie Gore	24.1%	No Home Run
#12	Cal Raleigh	—	vs Ian Seymour	23.9%	No Home Run
#13	Salvador Perez	Kansas City Royals	vs Shane Baz	23.9%	No Home Run
#14	Zach Neto	—	vs Taj Bradley	23.9%	No Home Run
#15	Willy Adames	—	vs Michael Lorenzen	23.9%	No Home Run

Strikeouts

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Pitcher	Opponent	Projected Ks	Actual Ks	Difference
Zack Wheeler	Detroit Tigers	7.4	10	+2.6
Tarik Skubal	Philadelphia Phillies	6.8	5	-1.8
Taj Bradley	Los Angeles Angels	5.7	6	+0.3	On Target
Paul Skenes	Milwaukee Brewers	5.6	7	+1.4
Kevin Gausman	San Diego Padres	5.5	8	+2.5
José Soriano	Minnesota Twins	5.4	0	-5.4
Emmet Sheehan	Arizona Diamondbacks	5.3	7	+1.7
MacKenzie Gore	Houston Astros	5.1	4	-1.1
Cade Cavalli	New York Yankees	4.9	5	+0.1	On Target
Matthew Boyd	Cincinnati Reds	4.9	3	-1.9
Payton Tolle	New York Mets	4.9	7	+2.1
Emerson Hancock	Tampa Bay Rays	4.9	2	-2.9
Robert Gasser	Pittsburgh Pirates	4.7	3	-1.7
JR Ritchie	St. Louis Cardinals	4.5	2	-2.5
Joey Cantillo	Miami Marlins	4.2	9	+4.8

Hit Probability

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Player	Team	Matchup	Hit Probability	Result
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	vs Mitch Bratt	62.1%	Hit
Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	vs Michael Lorenzen	61.7%	No Hit
Seiya Suzuki	Chicago Cubs	vs Andrew Abbott	61.6%	Hit
Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs MacKenzie Gore	61.6%	Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	vs Kevin Gausman	61.1%	No Hit
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	vs Matthew Boyd	61.0%	Hit
Juan Soto	—	vs Payton Tolle	60.9%	No Hit
Ben Rice	New York Yankees	vs Cade Cavalli	60.9%	Hit
Brandon Nimmo	—	vs Cristian Javier	60.8%	Hit
Bryan Reynolds	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Robert Gasser	60.8%	Hit
James Wood	Washington Nationals	vs Will Warren	60.8%	Hit
Shea Langeliers	—	vs Noah Schultz	60.7%	Hit
Andy Pages	—	vs Mitch Bratt	60.6%	No Hit
Otto Lopez	Miami Marlins	vs Joey Cantillo	60.6%	No Hit
Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay Rays	vs Emerson Hancock	60.5%	Hit

Model Highlights

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Francisco Lindor. Model HR probability 23.2% — result: Home Run.

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