MLB Results — July 11, 2026

Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — July 11, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Games covered

464

Hitters evaluated

Pitchers evaluated

July 11, 2026

Slate date

Home Run Threats

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rank	Player	Team	Matchup	HR Probability	Result
#1	Coby Mayo	Baltimore Orioles	vs Noah Cameron	30.8%	Home Run
#2	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Brandon Sproat	30.6%	No Home Run
#3	Jackson Merrill	—	vs Trey Yesavage	30.4%	No Home Run
#4	Willy Adames	—	vs Kyle Freeland	29.8%	No Home Run
#5	Heliot Ramos	—	vs Kyle Freeland	27.9%	No Home Run
#6	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	vs Tyler Mahle	26.6%	No Home Run
#7	Zach Neto	—	vs Joe Ryan	26.1%	No Home Run
#8	Heriberto Hernández	—	vs Tanner Bibee	25.3%	No Home Run
#9	Casey Schmitt	—	vs Kyle Freeland	25.2%	Home Run
#10	Cal Raleigh	—	vs Griffin Jax	25.0%	No Home Run
#11	Royce Lewis	Minnesota Twins	vs Ryan Johnson	24.4%	Home Run
#12	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Casey Mize	24.4%	No Home Run
#13	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Kumar Rocker	24.2%	Home Run
#14	Joc Pederson	Texas Rangers	vs Peter Lambert	24.1%	No Home Run
#15	Junior Caminero	—	vs Logan Gilbert	24.1%	No Home Run

Strikeouts

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Pitcher	Opponent	Projected Ks	Actual Ks	Difference
Cam Schlittler	Washington Nationals	6.8	6	-0.8	On Target
Joe Ryan	Los Angeles Angels	6.3	6	-0.3	On Target
Griffin Jax	Seattle Mariners	6.1	3	-3.1
Eury Pérez	Cleveland Guardians	6.0	6	+0.0	On Target
Logan Gilbert	Tampa Bay Rays	5.7	5	-0.7	On Target
Casey Mize	Philadelphia Phillies	5.6	5	-0.6	On Target
Kyle Bradish	Kansas City Royals	5.5	5	-0.5	On Target
Brandon Sproat	Pittsburgh Pirates	5.4	3	-2.4
Braxton Ashcraft	Milwaukee Brewers	5.3	6	+0.7	On Target
Cristopher Sánchez	Detroit Tigers	5.3	7	+1.7
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Arizona Diamondbacks	5.2	6	+0.8	On Target
Shane Drohan	Pittsburgh Pirates	5.2	6	+0.8	On Target
Gage Jump	Chicago White Sox	4.9	7	+2.1
Peter Lambert	Texas Rangers	4.9	7	+2.1
Trey Yesavage	San Diego Padres	4.9	1	-3.9

Hit Probability

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Player	Team	Matchup	Hit Probability	Result
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	vs Brandon Pfaadt	64.5%	Hit
Ben Rice	New York Yankees	vs PJ Poulin	64.5%	Hit
Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Kumar Rocker	64.5%	Hit
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	vs Javier Assad	63.3%	Hit
Seiya Suzuki	Chicago Cubs	vs Nick Lodolo	62.6%	Hit
Rafael Flores Jr.	—	vs Shane Drohan	62.6%	Hit
Kyle Stowers	Miami Marlins	vs Tanner Bibee	62.4%	Hit
Paul Goldschmidt	New York Yankees	vs PJ Poulin	62.3%	Hit
Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	vs Kyle Freeland	62.1%	No Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	vs Trey Yesavage	61.7%	No Hit
Tyler Soderstrom	Athletics	vs Bryan Hudson	61.1%	No Hit
Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Casey Mize	61.0%	Hit
Freddie Freeman	—	vs Brandon Pfaadt	61.0%	Hit
Bryan Reynolds	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Brandon Sproat	60.9%	Hit
Brandon Marsh	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Casey Mize	60.9%	No Hit

Model Highlights

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Coby Mayo. Model HR probability 30.8% — result: Home Run.

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