MLB Results — July 10, 2026

Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — July 10, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Games covered

406

Hitters evaluated

Pitchers evaluated

July 10, 2026

Slate date

Home Run Threats

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rank	Player	Team	Matchup	HR Probability	Result
#1	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	vs Robbie Ray	31.1%	No Home Run
#2	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Brandon Sproat	30.6%	No Home Run
#3	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Cal Quantrill	27.2%	Home Run
#4	Jackson Merrill	—	vs Shane Bieber	26.9%	No Home Run
#5	Zach Neto	—	vs Zebby Matthews	26.1%	No Home Run
#6	Spencer Steer	—	vs Shota Imanaga	25.4%	No Home Run
#7	Heliot Ramos	—	vs Tanner Gordon	25.3%	No Home Run
#8	Heriberto Hernández	—	vs Parker Messick	25.3%	Home Run
#9	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Jack Flaherty	24.4%	No Home Run
#10	Riley Greene	—	vs Aaron Nola	24.4%	No Home Run
#11	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	vs Shota Imanaga	24.4%	Home Run
#12	Jac Caglianone	Kansas City Royals	vs Brandon Young	24.1%	Home Run
#13	Ketel Marte	—	vs Kyle Hurt	23.9%	No Home Run
#14	Cal Raleigh	—	vs Nick Martinez	23.9%	No Home Run
#15	Ketel Marte	—	vs Shohei Ohtani	23.9%	No Home Run

Strikeouts

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Pitcher	Opponent	Projected Ks	Actual Ks	Difference
Nolan McLean	Boston Red Sox	6.5	7	+0.5	On Target
Chris Sale	St. Louis Cardinals	5.7	5	-0.7	On Target
Sean Burke	Athletics	5.7	9	+3.3
Ryan Weathers	Washington Nationals	5.6	6	+0.4	On Target
Hunter Brown	Texas Rangers	5.5	4	-1.5
Shota Imanaga	Cincinnati Reds	5.5	5	-0.5	On Target
Hunter Greene	Chicago Cubs	5.4	12	+6.6
Brandon Sproat	Pittsburgh Pirates	5.4	3	-2.4
Braxton Ashcraft	Milwaukee Brewers	5.3	6	+0.7	On Target
Sonny Gray	New York Mets	5.3	3	-2.3
Parker Messick	Miami Marlins	5.1	1	-4.1
Jack Flaherty	Philadelphia Phillies	5.0	6	+1.0	On Target
Aaron Nola	Detroit Tigers	4.9	8	+3.1
Zebby Matthews	Los Angeles Angels	4.9	3	-1.9
Luis Castillo	Tampa Bay Rays	4.6	4	-0.6	On Target

Hit Probability

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Player	Team	Matchup	Hit Probability	Result
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	vs Eduardo Rodriguez	64.5%	Hit
Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Cal Quantrill	62.8%	Hit
Juan Soto	—	vs Sonny Gray	62.8%	Hit
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	vs Shota Imanaga	62.1%	Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	vs Shane Bieber	62.1%	Hit
Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay Rays	vs Luis Castillo	62.0%	No Hit
Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	vs Tanner Gordon	61.9%	Hit
Brett Baty	New York Mets	vs Sonny Gray	61.6%	Hit
Freddie Freeman	—	vs Eduardo Rodriguez	61.4%	No Hit
Tyler Soderstrom	Athletics	vs Sean Burke	61.2%	Hit
Otto Lopez	Miami Marlins	vs Parker Messick	61.2%	No Hit
Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Jack Flaherty	61.1%	No Hit
Bryan Reynolds	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Brandon Sproat	60.7%	No Hit
Andy Pages	—	vs Eduardo Rodriguez	60.7%	Hit
Miguel Vargas	—	vs Jacob Lopez	60.6%	Hit

Model Highlights

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Yordan Alvarez. Model HR probability 27.2% — result: Home Run.

Explore More