MLB Results — July 9, 2026

Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — July 9, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Games covered

376

Hitters evaluated

Pitchers evaluated

July 9, 2026

Slate date

Home Run Threats

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rank	Player	Team	Matchup	HR Probability	Result
#1	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	vs Carson Whisenhunt	31.0%	No Home Run
#2	Coby Mayo	Baltimore Orioles	vs David Peterson	30.8%	No Home Run
#3	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Brady Singer	29.2%	No Home Run
#4	Jackson Merrill	—	vs Merrill Kelly	28.6%	No Home Run
#5	Zach Neto	—	vs Nathan Eovaldi	27.1%	No Home Run
#6	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	vs Unknown Pitcher	26.6%	No Home Run
#7	Salvador Perez	Kansas City Royals	vs Sean Manaea	25.3%	No Home Run
#8	Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	vs Merrill Kelly	24.4%	No Home Run
#9	Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	vs Jesús Luzardo	24.2%	No Home Run
#10	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Bryce Elder	24.1%	No Home Run
#11	Royce Lewis	Minnesota Twins	vs Gavin Williams	23.9%	Home Run
#12	Willy Adames	—	vs Ryan Feltner	23.9%	Home Run
#13	Justin Foscue	—	vs Reid Detmers	23.9%	Home Run
#14	Heriberto Hernández	—	vs Bryce Miller	23.9%	No Home Run
#15	Colson Montgomery	—	vs Patrick Sandoval	23.9%	No Home Run

Strikeouts

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Pitcher	Opponent	Projected Ks	Actual Ks	Difference
Jesús Luzardo	Cincinnati Reds	6.7	11	+4.3
Reid Detmers	Texas Rangers	6.2	6	-0.2	On Target
Nathan Eovaldi	Los Angeles Angels	6.0	10	+4.0
Gavin Williams	Minnesota Twins	5.9	11	+5.1
Patrick Sandoval	Chicago White Sox	5.7	5	-0.7	On Target
Logan Henderson	St. Louis Cardinals	5.7	4	-1.7
Bryce Miller	Miami Marlins	5.4	3	-2.4
Drew Rasmussen	New York Yankees	5.3	2	-3.3
Sean Manaea	Kansas City Royals	5.0	6	+1.0
Griffin Canning	Arizona Diamondbacks	4.5	5	+0.5	On Target
Merrill Kelly	San Diego Padres	4.2	6	+1.8
Andre Pallante	Milwaukee Brewers	4.2	2	-2.2
Brady Singer	Philadelphia Phillies	4.2	5	+0.8	On Target
Ryan Feltner	San Francisco Giants	4.2	3	-1.2
Janson Junk	Seattle Mariners	4.2	5	+0.8	On Target

Hit Probability

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Player	Team	Matchup	Hit Probability	Result
Juan Soto	—	vs Michael Wacha	64.2%	Hit
Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay Rays	vs Paul Blackburn	62.1%	Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	vs Merrill Kelly	61.9%	Hit
Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Brady Singer	61.8%	No Hit
Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Brady Singer	61.4%	Hit
Brandon Marsh	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Brady Singer	61.4%	Hit
Elly De La Cruz	Cincinnati Reds	vs Jesús Luzardo	61.3%	No Hit
Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	vs Ryan Feltner	61.2%	Hit
Bryan Reynolds	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Bryce Elder	60.8%	Hit
Seiya Suzuki	Chicago Cubs	vs Trevor Rogers	60.8%	Hit
Derek Hill	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Brady Singer	60.7%	No Hit
Ben Rice	New York Yankees	vs Drew Rasmussen	60.6%	Hit
Ketel Marte	—	vs Griffin Canning	60.3%	No Hit
Heliot Ramos	—	vs Ryan Feltner	60.3%	Hit
Michael Harris II	—	vs Mitch Keller	60.3%	Hit

Model Highlights

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Justin Foscue. Model HR probability 23.9% — result: Home Run.

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