MLB Results

MLB Model Results — July 8, 2026

Home run threat, strikeout, and hit probability results for this MLB slate.

OverviewTop PlaysPitchersAnalytics LabHittersHome Run ThreatsIntelMatchup HistoryWeatherResultsStadiums
← July 7, 2026Back to Results ArchiveJuly 9, 2026 →
Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — July 8, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

16
Games covered
405
Hitters evaluated
31
Pitchers evaluated
July 8, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats

Top Home Run Threat Results

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

RankPlayerTeamMatchupHR ProbabilityResult
#1Hunter GoodmanColorado Rockiesvs Roki Sasaki31.2%No Home Run
#2Kyle SchwarberPhiladelphia Philliesvs Chase Burns31.1%Home Run
#3Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs Grant Holmes31.1%No Home Run
#4Coby MayoBaltimore Oriolesvs Colin Rea30.8%Home Run
#5Colson Montgomery—vs Jake Bennett30.6%No Home Run
#6Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgersvs Gabriel Hughes25.2%No Home Run
#7Zach Neto—vs MacKenzie Gore25.0%No Home Run
#8Heliot Ramos—vs Dylan Cease24.4%No Home Run
#9Yordan AlvarezHouston Astrosvs Foster Griffin24.2%No Home Run
#10Jac CaglianoneKansas City Royalsvs Christian Scott24.1%No Home Run
#11Owen Caissie—vs George Kirby24.1%No Home Run
#12Luis García Jr.—vs Spencer Arrighetti24.1%Home Run
#13Luke Raley—vs Tyler Phillips24.1%No Home Run
#14Gunnar HendersonBaltimore Oriolesvs Colin Rea23.9%No Home Run
#15Carter JensenKansas City Royalsvs Christian Scott23.9%No Home Run
Strikeouts

Pitcher Strikeout Results

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

PitcherOpponentProjected KsActual KsDifference
Chase BurnsPhiladelphia Phillies7.22-5.2
Dylan CeaseSan Francisco Giants5.711+5.3
MacKenzie GoreLos Angeles Angels5.67+1.4
Christian ScottKansas City Royals5.55-0.5On Target
Connor PrielippCleveland Guardians5.36+0.7On Target
Spencer ArrighettiWashington Nationals5.22-3.2
Foster GriffinHouston Astros5.29+3.8
Kyle HarrisonSt. Louis Cardinals5.22-3.2
Davis MartinBoston Red Sox5.02-3.0
Gerrit ColeTampa Bay Rays5.06+1.0
Shane McClanahanNew York Yankees5.05+0.0On Target
George KirbyMiami Marlins5.07+2.0
Jake BennettChicago White Sox5.04-1.0On Target
Logan WebbToronto Blue Jays4.72-2.7
Troy MeltonAthletics4.49+4.6
Hit Probability

Hit Probability Results

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

PlayerTeamMatchupHit ProbabilityResult
Shohei OhtaniLos Angeles Dodgersvs Gabriel Hughes63.5%No Hit
Freddie Freeman—vs Gabriel Hughes63.2%Hit
Juan Soto—vs Steven Cruz62.4%No Hit
Bryce HarperPhiladelphia Philliesvs Chase Burns62.3%No Hit
Yordan AlvarezHouston Astrosvs Foster Griffin62.2%No Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.San Diego Padresvs Jose Cabrera62.0%Hit
Brandon MarshPhiladelphia Philliesvs Chase Burns61.9%Hit
James WoodWashington Nationalsvs Spencer Arrighetti61.7%No Hit
Bryan ReynoldsPittsburgh Piratesvs Grant Holmes61.3%Hit
Brett BatyNew York Metsvs Steven Cruz61.1%Hit
Mickey MoniakColorado Rockiesvs Roki Sasaki61.0%No Hit
Kyle SchwarberPhiladelphia Philliesvs Chase Burns60.9%Hit
Edouard JulienColorado Rockiesvs Roki Sasaki60.6%Hit
Kyle StowersMiami Marlinsvs George Kirby60.5%Hit
Brandon LowePittsburgh Piratesvs Grant Holmes60.3%Hit
Model Highlights

What the Model Got Right

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Top Home Run Calls

Top Strikeout Calls

Biggest Surprises

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kyle Schwarber. Model HR probability 31.1% — result: Home Run.
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