Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 7, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
17
Games covered
485
Hitters evaluated
35
Pitchers evaluated
July 7, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Andrew Abbott | 31.0% | Home Run |
| #2 | Colson Montgomery | — | vs Payton Tolle | 30.7% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Hurston Waldrep | 30.6% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Zach Neto | — | vs Jacob deGrom | 27.0% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Royce Lewis | Minnesota Twins | vs Joey Cantillo | 27.0% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Matthew Boyd | 26.1% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Jackson Merrill | — | vs Zac Gallen | 24.4% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Miguel Vargas | — | vs Payton Tolle | 24.1% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Owen Caissie | — | vs Bryan Woo | 24.1% | Home Run |
| #10 | Luke Raley | — | vs Max Meyer | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Luis García Jr. | — | vs Tatsuya Imai | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Kazuma Okamoto | — | vs Trevor McDonald | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Michael Lorenzen | 23.9% | Home Run |
| #14 | Randal Grichuk | — | vs Payton Tolle | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Cal Raleigh | — | vs Max Meyer | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | Athletics | 7.3 | 9 | +1.7 | |
| Zack Wheeler | Cincinnati Reds | 7.1 | 14 | +6.9 | |
| Jacob deGrom | Los Angeles Angels | 6.8 | 7 | +0.2 | On Target |
| Paul Skenes | Atlanta Braves | 6.5 | 4 | -2.5 | |
| Jacob Misiorowski | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.7 | 11 | +5.3 | |
| Taj Bradley | Cleveland Guardians | 5.7 | 10 | +4.3 | |
| Tatsuya Imai | Washington Nationals | 5.6 | 3 | -2.6 | |
| Max Meyer | Seattle Mariners | 5.6 | 4 | -1.6 | |
| Andrew Alvarez | Houston Astros | 5.3 | 3 | -2.3 | |
| José Soriano | Texas Rangers | 5.3 | 4 | -1.3 | |
| Matthew Boyd | Baltimore Orioles | 5.2 | 7 | +1.8 | |
| Joey Cantillo | Minnesota Twins | 5.1 | 7 | +1.9 | |
| Bryan Woo | Miami Marlins | 5.0 | 5 | -0.0 | On Target |
| Payton Tolle | Chicago White Sox | 5.0 | 6 | +1.0 | On Target |
| Will Warren | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Michael Lorenzen | 62.9% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Andrew Abbott | 62.1% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Andrew Abbott | 62.1% | Hit |
| Juan Soto | — | vs Seth Lugo | 62.0% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Zac Gallen | 61.8% | Hit |
| Freddie Freeman | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 61.6% | Hit |
| Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | vs Spencer Miles | 61.4% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Andrew Alvarez | 61.4% | No Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Andrew Abbott | 61.1% | No Hit |
| Ketel Marte | — | vs Germán Márquez | 61.1% | Hit |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Hurston Waldrep | 61.1% | No Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Bryan Woo | 61.0% | No Hit |
| Brett Baty | New York Mets | vs Seth Lugo | 60.9% | Hit |
| Andy Pages | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 60.8% | Hit |
| James Wood | Washington Nationals | vs Tatsuya Imai | 60.6% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Kyle Schwarber — 31.0% HR probability
- Owen Caissie — 24.1% HR probability
- Shohei Ohtani — 23.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Tarik Skubal — proj 7.3, recorded 9
- Zack Wheeler — proj 7.1, recorded 14
- Jacob deGrom — proj 6.8, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Ian Seymour — proj 3.4, recorded 12
- Zack Wheeler — proj 7.1, recorded 14
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kyle Schwarber. Model HR probability 31.0% — result: Home Run.
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