Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — June 26, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
15
Games covered
425
Hitters evaluated
31
Pitchers evaluated
June 26, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Zach Thornton | 22.3% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Zach Thornton | 22.3% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Byron Buxton | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 22.1% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Andrew Abbott | 21.8% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Juan Soto | — | vs Zack Wheeler | 21.4% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Marcell Ozuna | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Andrew Abbott | 21.4% | Home Run |
| #7 | Pete Alonso | — | vs Andrew Alvarez | 21.0% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Taj Bradley | 21.0% | Home Run |
| #9 | Ketel Marte | — | vs Nick Martinez | 20.9% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Jake Burger | — | vs Patrick Corbin | 20.9% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Derek Hill | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Zach Thornton | 20.8% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Colson Montgomery | — | vs Steven Cruz | 20.8% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Junior Caminero | — | vs Zac Gallen | 20.8% | Home Run |
| #14 | Francisco Lindor | — | vs Zack Wheeler | 20.7% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Christian Walker | — | vs Keider Montero | 20.6% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Misiorowski | Chicago Cubs | 7.4 | 8 | +0.6 | On Target |
| Paul Skenes | Cincinnati Reds | 7.1 | 7 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Zack Wheeler | New York Mets | 6.1 | 5 | -1.1 | |
| Andrew Alvarez | Baltimore Orioles | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Max Meyer | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Will Warren | Boston Red Sox | 5.2 | 0 | -5.2 | |
| Payton Tolle | New York Yankees | 5.1 | 7 | +1.9 | |
| Taj Bradley | Colorado Rockies | 5.1 | 7 | +1.9 | |
| David Sandlin | Kansas City Royals | 5.0 | 6 | +1.0 | On Target |
| Nathan Eovaldi | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.0 | 9 | +4.0 | |
| Spencer Arrighetti | Detroit Tigers | 5.0 | 7 | +2.0 | |
| Luis Castillo | Cleveland Guardians | 5.0 | 4 | -1.0 | On Target |
| Walbert Ureña | Athletics | 5.0 | 5 | +0.0 | On Target |
| J.T. Ginn | Los Angeles Angels | 5.0 | 5 | +0.0 | On Target |
| Joey Cantillo | Seattle Mariners | 5.0 | 9 | +4.0 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Goldschmidt | New York Yankees | vs Payton Tolle | 64.1% | No Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Walker Buehler | 63.1% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Keider Montero | 62.7% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Zach Thornton | 62.5% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Zach Thornton | 62.5% | Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Zac Gallen | 62.1% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Zach Thornton | 61.9% | No Hit |
| Bryan Reynolds | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Andrew Abbott | 61.8% | Hit |
| Juan Soto | — | vs Zack Wheeler | 61.6% | No Hit |
| Byron Buxton | — | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | 61.5% | Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs Trevor Rogers | 61.3% | No Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Michael McGreevy | 61.3% | Hit |
| Jake Bauers | Milwaukee Brewers | vs Colin Rea | 61.3% | No Hit |
| Tyler Soderstrom | Athletics | vs Walbert Ureña | 61.3% | No Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Roki Sasaki | 60.6% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Marcell Ozuna — 21.4% HR probability
- Hunter Goodman — 21.0% HR probability
- Junior Caminero — 20.8% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Jacob Misiorowski — proj 7.4, recorded 8
- Payton Tolle — proj 5.1, recorded 7
- Taj Bradley — proj 5.1, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Will Warren — proj 5.2, recorded 0
- Joey Cantillo — proj 5.0, recorded 9
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Marcell Ozuna. Model HR probability 21.4% — result: Home Run.
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