MLB Results — June 25, 2026

Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — June 25, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Games covered

237

Hitters evaluated

Pitchers evaluated

June 25, 2026

Slate date

Home Run Threats

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rank	Player	Team	Matchup	HR Probability	Result
#1	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Cade Cavalli	22.6%	No Home Run
#2	Cal Raleigh	—	vs Bubba Chandler	22.5%	No Home Run
#3	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Cade Cavalli	22.4%	Home Run
#4	Kerry Carpenter	—	vs Tatsuya Imai	21.2%	No Home Run
#5	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Bryce Miller	21.1%	Home Run
#6	Christian Walker	—	vs Troy Melton	21.0%	No Home Run
#7	Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	vs Jeffrey Springs	20.6%	No Home Run
#8	Shea Langeliers	—	vs Landen Roupp	20.5%	No Home Run
#9	Corey Seager	—	vs Kevin Gausman	20.5%	No Home Run
#10	Julio Rodríguez	—	vs Bubba Chandler	20.4%	No Home Run
#11	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Troy Melton	20.3%	No Home Run
#12	James Wood	Washington Nationals	vs Cristopher Sánchez	20.3%	No Home Run
#13	Junior Caminero	—	vs Seth Lugo	20.3%	Home Run
#14	Nick Kurtz	Athletics	vs Landen Roupp	20.2%	No Home Run
#15	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Toronto Blue Jays	vs MacKenzie Gore	20.1%	No Home Run

Strikeouts

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Pitcher	Opponent	Projected Ks	Actual Ks	Difference
Connelly Early	New York Yankees	6.7	9	+2.3
Cristopher Sánchez	Washington Nationals	6.3	6	-0.3	On Target
Cam Schlittler	Boston Red Sox	5.4	9	+3.6
Kevin Gausman	Texas Rangers	5.4	4	-1.4
Landen Roupp	Athletics	5.2	6	+0.8	On Target
MacKenzie Gore	Toronto Blue Jays	5.0	5	-0.0	On Target
Bryce Miller	Pittsburgh Pirates	5.0	11	+6.0
Cade Cavalli	Philadelphia Phillies	5.0	7	+2.0
Freddy Peralta	Chicago Cubs	4.4	5	+0.6	On Target
Tatsuya Imai	Detroit Tigers	4.1	10	+5.9
Jeffrey Springs	San Francisco Giants	3.9	6	+2.1
Seth Lugo	Tampa Bay Rays	3.9	3	-0.9	On Target
Michael McGreevy	Arizona Diamondbacks	3.9	3	-0.9	On Target
Matthew Boyd	New York Mets	3.9	4	+0.1	On Target
Bubba Chandler	Seattle Mariners	3.9	4	+0.1	On Target

Hit Probability

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Player	Team	Matchup	Hit Probability	Result
Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Troy Melton	62.1%	No Hit
Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Cade Cavalli	61.3%	Hit
Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay Rays	vs Seth Lugo	61.1%	Hit
Brandon Marsh	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Cade Cavalli	60.5%	Hit
Paul Goldschmidt	New York Yankees	vs Connelly Early	60.2%	Hit
Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Cade Cavalli	60.0%	Hit
Ben Rice	New York Yankees	vs Connelly Early	60.0%	No Hit
Alec Burleson	—	vs Zac Gallen	59.9%	Hit
Tyler Soderstrom	Athletics	vs Landen Roupp	59.7%	Hit
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Toronto Blue Jays	vs MacKenzie Gore	59.5%	No Hit
Nick Kurtz	Athletics	vs Landen Roupp	59.0%	No Hit
Casey Schmitt	—	vs Jeffrey Springs	58.9%	Hit
Randy Arozarena	—	vs Bubba Chandler	58.9%	Hit
Josh Naylor	—	vs Bubba Chandler	58.9%	Hit
Bryan Reynolds	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Bryce Miller	58.5%	Hit

Model Highlights

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Bryce Harper. Model HR probability 22.4% — result: Home Run.

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