Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — June 27, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
403
Hitters evaluated
31
Pitchers evaluated
June 27, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Cal Quantrill | 21.3% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Mike Paredes | 21.3% | Home Run |
| #3 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Christian Scott | 21.2% | Home Run |
| #4 | Byron Buxton | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 21.2% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Christian Scott | 21.1% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Juan Soto | — | vs Tim Mayza | 21.1% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Colson Montgomery | — | vs Michael Wacha | 20.9% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Junior Caminero | — | vs Jose Cabrera | 20.8% | Home Run |
| #9 | Ketel Marte | — | vs Cole Sulser | 20.6% | Home Run |
| #10 | Christian Walker | — | vs Framber Valdez | 20.4% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Cal Raleigh | — | vs Slade Cecconi | 20.2% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Chase Burns | 20.1% | Home Run |
| #13 | Corey Seager | — | vs Dylan Cease | 20.0% | Home Run |
| #14 | Mark Vientos | — | vs Tim Mayza | 19.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Francisco Lindor | — | vs Tim Mayza | 19.7% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease | Texas Rangers | 8.0 | 10 | +2.0 | |
| Chase Burns | Pittsburgh Pirates | 7.2 | 10 | +2.8 | |
| Logan Gilbert | Cleveland Guardians | 5.7 | 7 | +1.3 | |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | San Diego Padres | 5.6 | 4 | -1.6 | |
| Reid Detmers | Athletics | 5.5 | 8 | +2.5 | |
| Foster Griffin | Baltimore Orioles | 5.5 | 9 | +3.5 | |
| Christian Scott | Philadelphia Phillies | 5.2 | 6 | +0.8 | On Target |
| Davis Martin | Kansas City Royals | 5.2 | 3 | -2.2 | |
| Kyle Harrison | Chicago Cubs | 5.2 | 9 | +3.8 | |
| Logan Webb | Atlanta Braves | 5.1 | 6 | +0.9 | On Target |
| Gerrit Cole | Boston Red Sox | 4.8 | 5 | +0.2 | On Target |
| Kai-Wei Teng | Detroit Tigers | 4.3 | 1 | -3.3 | |
| Bryce Elder | San Francisco Giants | 4.1 | 4 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Jake Bennett | New York Yankees | 4.1 | 3 | -1.1 | |
| Andre Pallante | Miami Marlins | 3.9 | 4 | +0.1 | On Target |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Randy Vásquez | 62.3% | Hit |
| Paul Goldschmidt | New York Yankees | vs Jake Bennett | 62.3% | No Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Christian Scott | 61.9% | Hit |
| Brandon Marsh | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Christian Scott | 61.6% | Hit |
| Byron Buxton | — | vs Michael Lorenzen | 61.3% | No Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Christian Scott | 61.2% | No Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Jose Cabrera | 61.2% | Hit |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Toronto Blue Jays | vs Cal Quantrill | 61.1% | No Hit |
| Andrew Vaughn | — | vs David Peterson | 61.1% | No Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs Brandon Young | 61.0% | No Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Jake Bennett | 60.9% | No Hit |
| Wilyer Abreu | — | vs Gerrit Cole | 60.8% | No Hit |
| Juan Soto | — | vs Tim Mayza | 60.8% | Hit |
| TJ Rumfield | — | vs Mike Paredes | 60.5% | Hit |
| Mickey Moniak | Colorado Rockies | vs Mike Paredes | 60.5% | No Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Hunter Goodman — 21.3% HR probability
- Bryce Harper — 21.2% HR probability
- Junior Caminero — 20.8% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Dylan Cease — proj 8.0, recorded 10
- Chase Burns — proj 7.2, recorded 10
- Logan Gilbert — proj 5.7, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Brandon Young — proj 3.9, recorded 8
- Kyle Harrison — proj 5.2, recorded 9
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Hunter Goodman. Model HR probability 21.3% — result: Home Run.
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