MLB Results — July 23, 2026

Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — July 23, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Games covered

151

Hitters evaluated

Pitchers evaluated

July 23, 2026

Slate date

Home Run Threats

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rank	Player	Team	Matchup	HR Probability	Result
#1	Kazuma Okamoto	—	vs Ian Seymour	25.4%	No Home Run
#2	Jackson Merrill	—	vs Chris Sale	24.1%	No Home Run
#3	Byron Buxton	—	vs Gavin Williams	24.1%	No Home Run
#4	Kazuma Okamoto	—	vs Casey Legumina	24.1%	No Home Run
#5	Royce Lewis	Minnesota Twins	vs Gavin Williams	21.6%	No Home Run
#6	Salvador Perez	Kansas City Royals	vs Troy Melton	18.9%	No Home Run
#7	Austin Riley	Atlanta Braves	vs Griffin Canning	18.6%	No Home Run
#8	Alec Burleson	—	vs Brandon Pfaadt	18.6%	No Home Run
#9	Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	vs Griffin Canning	18.6%	No Home Run
#10	Carter Jensen	Kansas City Royals	vs Troy Melton	18.6%	No Home Run
#11	Michael Harris II	—	vs Griffin Canning	18.6%	Home Run
#12	Austin Riley	Atlanta Braves	vs Kyle Hart	18.6%	No Home Run
#13	José Ramírez	Cleveland Guardians	vs Taj Bradley	18.6%	No Home Run
#14	Kyle Manzardo	—	vs Taj Bradley	18.6%	No Home Run
#15	Rhys Hoskins	—	vs Taj Bradley	18.6%	No Home Run

Strikeouts

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Pitcher	Opponent	Projected Ks	Actual Ks	Difference
Chris Sale	San Diego Padres	7.2	11	+3.8
Troy Melton	Kansas City Royals	5.7	5	-0.7	On Target
Gavin Williams	Minnesota Twins	5.5	11	+5.5
Taj Bradley	Cleveland Guardians	5.4	5	-0.4	On Target
Griffin Canning	Atlanta Braves	4.8	4	-0.8	On Target
Brandon Pfaadt	St. Louis Cardinals	4.4	1	-3.4
Michael McGreevy	Arizona Diamondbacks	4.4	3	-1.4
Shane Bieber	Tampa Bay Rays	4.0	3	-1.0
Randy Dobnak	Detroit Tigers	3.6	3	-0.6	On Target
Ian Seymour	Toronto Blue Jays	3.3	7	+3.7
Kyle Hart	Atlanta Braves	2.8	1	-1.8
Casey Legumina	Toronto Blue Jays	2.6	2	-0.6	On Target

Hit Probability

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Player	Team	Matchup	Hit Probability	Result
Riley Greene	—	vs Randy Dobnak	62.2%	Hit
Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay Rays	vs Shane Bieber	61.8%	Hit
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	vs Chris Sale	61.8%	Hit
Kevin McGonigle	—	vs Randy Dobnak	61.4%	Hit
Junior Caminero	—	vs Shane Bieber	61.2%	No Hit
Byron Buxton	—	vs Gavin Williams	61.0%	Hit
Alec Burleson	—	vs Brandon Pfaadt	60.6%	Hit
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Toronto Blue Jays	vs Casey Legumina	60.5%	Hit
Dillon Dingler	—	vs Randy Dobnak	60.3%	Hit
Drake Baldwin	Atlanta Braves	vs Kyle Hart	59.9%	Hit
Jonathan Aranda	—	vs Shane Bieber	59.6%	No Hit
Michael Harris II	—	vs Kyle Hart	59.5%	Hit
Matt Olson	Atlanta Braves	vs Kyle Hart	59.1%	No Hit
Gleyber Torres	—	vs Randy Dobnak	58.9%	Hit
Gabriel Moreno	—	vs Michael McGreevy	58.9%	Hit

Model Highlights

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Michael Harris II. Model HR probability 18.6% — result: Home Run.

Explore More