Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — July 22, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
17
Games covered
451
Hitters evaluated
34
Pitchers evaluated
July 22, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | Colorado Rockies | vs Cade Cavalli | 31.6% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Eric Lauer | 31.1% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Coby Mayo | Baltimore Orioles | vs Jake Bennett | 31.0% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Heriberto Hernández | — | vs Peter Lambert | 30.3% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Sandy Alcantara | 26.6% | Home Run |
| #6 | Kazuma Okamoto | — | vs Griffin Jax | 26.2% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Mickey Moniak | Colorado Rockies | vs Cade Cavalli | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Luke Raley | — | vs Brady Singer | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #9 | James Wood | Washington Nationals | vs Gabriel Hughes | 25.2% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Aaron Nola | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #11 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Gerrit Cole | 25.0% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Jake Burger | — | vs Anthony Kay | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Michael Conforto | — | vs Keider Montero | 24.2% | No Home Run |
| #14 | Austin Riley | Atlanta Braves | vs Michael King | 23.9% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Matt Olson | Atlanta Braves | vs Michael King | 23.9% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Bradish | Boston Red Sox | 7.2 | 4 | -3.2 | |
| Logan Henderson | New York Mets | 6.1 | 9 | +2.9 | |
| Christian Scott | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.9 | 6 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Griffin Jax | Toronto Blue Jays | 5.6 | 5 | -0.6 | On Target |
| Reid Detmers | St. Louis Cardinals | 5.5 | 6 | +0.5 | On Target |
| Cade Cavalli | Colorado Rockies | 5.5 | 8 | +2.5 | |
| Emerson Hancock | Cincinnati Reds | 5.5 | 3 | -2.5 | |
| Gerrit Cole | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5.4 | 11 | +5.6 | |
| Gabriel Hughes | Washington Nationals | 5.3 | 5 | -0.3 | On Target |
| Dean Kremer | Boston Red Sox | 5.3 | 5 | -0.3 | On Target |
| Hunter Dobbins | Los Angeles Angels | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 | On Target |
| Gage Jump | Arizona Diamondbacks | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Aaron Nola | Los Angeles Dodgers | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Landen Roupp | Kansas City Royals | 5.1 | 7 | +1.9 | |
| Peter Lambert | Miami Marlins | 5.1 | 3 | -2.1 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Sandy Alcantara | 62.9% | Hit |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Martín Pérez | 62.3% | Hit |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles Dodgers | vs Aaron Nola | 61.9% | No Hit |
| Tyler Soderstrom | Athletics | vs Merrill Kelly | 61.7% | Hit |
| Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Eric Lauer | 61.4% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Eric Lauer | 61.4% | No Hit |
| Seiya Suzuki | Chicago Cubs | vs Keider Montero | 61.3% | Hit |
| Derek Hill | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Eric Lauer | 61.0% | No Hit |
| Ben Rice | New York Yankees | vs Mitch Keller | 60.9% | No Hit |
| CJ Abrams | Washington Nationals | vs Gabriel Hughes | 60.8% | Hit |
| Kyle Stowers | Miami Marlins | vs Peter Lambert | 60.6% | No Hit |
| Yandy Díaz | Tampa Bay Rays | vs Braydon Fisher | 60.6% | No Hit |
| James Wood | Washington Nationals | vs Gabriel Hughes | 60.6% | No Hit |
| Rafael Devers | San Francisco Giants | vs Seth Lugo | 60.6% | Hit |
| Riley Greene | — | vs Colin Rea | 60.5% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Yordan Alvarez — 26.6% HR probability
- Luis García Jr. — 23.9% HR probability
- Salvador Perez — 23.9% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Logan Henderson — proj 6.1, recorded 9
- Christian Scott — proj 5.9, recorded 6
- Reid Detmers — proj 5.5, recorded 6
Biggest Surprises
- Gerrit Cole — proj 5.4, recorded 11
- Keider Montero — proj 4.5, recorded 8
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Yordan Alvarez. Model HR probability 26.6% — result: Home Run.
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