MLB Results — June 23, 2026

Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — June 23, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Games covered

389

Hitters evaluated

Pitchers evaluated

June 23, 2026

Slate date

Home Run Threats

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rank	Player	Team	Matchup	HR Probability	Result
#1	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	vs Sonny Gray	23.5%	No Home Run
#2	Byron Buxton	—	vs Justin Wrobleski	23.2%	No Home Run
#3	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Zack Littell	23.1%	No Home Run
#4	Christian Walker	—	vs Shane Bieber	23.1%	No Home Run
#5	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Shane Bieber	23.0%	No Home Run
#6	Cal Raleigh	—	vs Mitch Keller	22.9%	Home Run
#7	Pete Alonso	—	vs Ryan Johnson	22.9%	No Home Run
#8	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Toronto Blue Jays	vs Peter Lambert	22.8%	No Home Run
#9	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs George Kirby	22.7%	No Home Run
#10	Colson Montgomery	—	vs Parker Messick	22.5%	No Home Run
#11	Juan Soto	—	vs Edward Cabrera	22.4%	No Home Run
#12	Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	vs JR Ritchie	22.3%	Home Run
#13	Nick Kurtz	Athletics	vs Robbie Ray	22.3%	No Home Run
#14	Junior Caminero	—	vs Luinder Avila	19.5%	Home Run
#15	Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	vs Aaron Civale	19.5%	No Home Run

Strikeouts

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Pitcher	Opponent	Projected Ks	Actual Ks	Difference
Carlos Rodón	Detroit Tigers	5.8	5	-0.8	On Target
Parker Messick	Chicago White Sox	5.8	10	+4.2
Jesús Luzardo	Washington Nationals	5.7	13	+7.3
Casey Mize	New York Yankees	5.4	6	+0.6	On Target
Shane Bieber	Houston Astros	5.3	2	-3.3
Sean Burke	Cleveland Guardians	5.2	6	+0.8	On Target
George Kirby	Pittsburgh Pirates	5.1	5	-0.1	On Target
Shane McClanahan	Kansas City Royals	5.0	4	-1.0	On Target
Brandon Sproat	Cincinnati Reds	5.0	10	+5.0
Shane Baz	Los Angeles Angels	4.9	5	+0.1	On Target
Peter Lambert	Toronto Blue Jays	4.5	6	+1.5
Sandy Alcantara	Texas Rangers	4.0	4	-0.0	On Target
Zack Littell	Philadelphia Phillies	3.9	5	+1.1
Edward Cabrera	New York Mets	3.9	4	+0.1	On Target
Mitch Keller	Seattle Mariners	3.9	4	+0.1	On Target

Hit Probability

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Player	Team	Matchup	Hit Probability	Result
Gunnar Henderson	Baltimore Orioles	vs Ryan Johnson	61.5%	Hit
Jose Altuve	—	vs Shane Bieber	60.4%	Hit
George Springer	—	vs Peter Lambert	60.3%	Hit
Alec Bohm	—	vs Zack Littell	59.2%	Hit
Leody Taveras	—	vs Ryan Johnson	58.9%	Hit
Bryson Stott	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Zack Littell	58.9%	Hit
Brandon Marsh	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Zack Littell	58.7%	Hit
Corbin Carroll	Arizona Diamondbacks	vs Kyle Leahy	58.3%	No Hit
Yainer Diaz	—	vs Shane Bieber	58.3%	Hit
Brandon Valenzuela	—	vs Peter Lambert	57.9%	No Hit
Jose Siri	—	vs Shane Baz	57.6%	Hit
Esteury Ruiz	—	vs Cal Quantrill	57.5%	No Hit
Connor Wong	—	vs Sean Sullivan	57.3%	Hit
Isaac Paredes	—	vs Shane Bieber	57.3%	Hit
Pete Alonso	—	vs Ryan Johnson	57.1%	No Hit

Model Highlights

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Cal Raleigh. Model HR probability 22.9% — result: Home Run.

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