MLB Results — June 22, 2026

Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — June 22, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Games covered

364

Hitters evaluated

Pitchers evaluated

June 22, 2026

Slate date

Home Run Threats

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rank	Player	Team	Matchup	HR Probability	Result
#1	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	vs Jake Bennett	23.4%	No Home Run
#2	Byron Buxton	—	vs Eric Lauer	23.2%	Home Run
#3	Kerry Carpenter	—	vs Gerrit Cole	23.0%	No Home Run
#4	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Foster Griffin	22.7%	No Home Run
#5	Pete Alonso	—	vs Sam Aldegheri	22.6%	No Home Run
#6	Austin Riley	Atlanta Braves	vs Michael King	22.3%	No Home Run
#7	Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	vs Zebby Matthews	22.3%	Home Run
#8	Tyler O'Neill	—	vs Sam Aldegheri	19.5%	No Home Run
#9	Junior Caminero	—	vs Michael Wacha	19.5%	No Home Run
#10	Gunnar Henderson	Baltimore Orioles	vs Sam Aldegheri	19.5%	No Home Run
#11	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Foster Griffin	19.5%	No Home Run
#12	Riley Greene	—	vs Gerrit Cole	19.5%	Home Run
#13	Christian Walker	—	vs Unknown Pitcher	19.5%	No Home Run
#14	Max Muncy	—	vs Zebby Matthews	19.1%	No Home Run
#15	Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Unknown Pitcher	18.2%	No Home Run

Strikeouts

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Pitcher	Opponent	Projected Ks	Actual Ks	Difference
Dylan Cease	Houston Astros	9.4	8	-1.4
Gavin Williams	Chicago White Sox	6.3	8	+1.7
Kyle Bradish	Los Angeles Angels	5.8	9	+3.2
Hunter Brown	Toronto Blue Jays	5.8	4	-1.8
Drew Rasmussen	Kansas City Royals	5.2	5	-0.2	On Target
Gerrit Cole	Detroit Tigers	5.0	5	+0.0	On Target
Foster Griffin	Philadelphia Phillies	5.0	9	+4.0
Zebby Matthews	Los Angeles Dodgers	4.8	5	+0.2	On Target
Michael King	Atlanta Braves	4.0	5	+1.0	On Target
Michael Wacha	Tampa Bay Rays	3.9	5	+1.1
Kumar Rocker	Miami Marlins	3.9	9	+5.2
Andre Pallante	Arizona Diamondbacks	3.9	2	-1.9
Eric Lauer	Minnesota Twins	3.9	2	-1.9
Merrill Kelly	St. Louis Cardinals	3.9	2	-1.9
Grant Holmes	San Diego Padres	3.9	4	+0.1	On Target

Hit Probability

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Player	Team	Matchup	Hit Probability	Result
Dillon Dingler	—	vs Gerrit Cole	62.1%	No Hit
Colt Keith	Detroit Tigers	vs Gerrit Cole	61.8%	Hit
Kevin McGonigle	—	vs Gerrit Cole	60.3%	Hit
Kerry Carpenter	—	vs Gerrit Cole	60.3%	Hit
Esteury Ruiz	—	vs Tyler Alexander	59.5%	No Hit
Riley Greene	—	vs Gerrit Cole	58.8%	Hit
Anthony Volpe	—	vs Framber Valdez	58.7%	Hit
Gunnar Henderson	Baltimore Orioles	vs Sam Aldegheri	57.8%	Hit
Amed Rosario	New York Yankees	vs Framber Valdez	57.5%	Hit
Austin Hedges	—	vs Anthony Kay	57.5%	No Hit
Daniel Schneemann	—	vs Anthony Kay	57.4%	Hit
Kyle Stowers	Miami Marlins	vs Tyler Alexander	57.3%	Hit
Colton Cowser	—	vs Sam Aldegheri	57.0%	No Hit
Josh Bell	—	vs Eric Lauer	57.0%	No Hit
Bryson Stott	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Foster Griffin	56.9%	No Hit

Model Highlights

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Byron Buxton. Model HR probability 23.2% — result: Home Run.

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