Slate Summary
MLB Model Results — June 17, 2026
Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.
16
Games covered
421
Hitters evaluated
32
Pitchers evaluated
June 17, 2026
Slate date
Home Run Threats
Top Home Run Threat Results
Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Rank | Player | Team | Matchup | HR Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Ketel Marte | — | vs Sam Aldegheri | 30.0% | No Home Run |
| #2 | Mike Trout | — | vs Eduardo Rodriguez | 30.0% | No Home Run |
| #3 | Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Sandy Alcantara | 30.0% | No Home Run |
| #4 | Christian Walker | — | vs Casey Mize | 30.0% | No Home Run |
| #5 | Kyle Schwarber | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Sandy Alcantara | 30.0% | No Home Run |
| #6 | Juan Soto | — | vs Nick Lodolo | 30.0% | No Home Run |
| #7 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | San Diego Padres | vs Kyle Leahy | 30.0% | No Home Run |
| #8 | Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Casey Mize | 29.6% | No Home Run |
| #9 | Mark Vientos | — | vs Nick Lodolo | 27.8% | No Home Run |
| #10 | Kerry Carpenter | — | vs Peter Lambert | 26.5% | Home Run |
| #11 | Salvador Perez | Kansas City Royals | vs Zack Littell | 26.2% | No Home Run |
| #12 | Junior Caminero | — | vs Shohei Ohtani | 25.8% | No Home Run |
| #13 | Colson Montgomery | — | vs Carlos Rodón | 25.5% | Home Run |
| #14 | Bobby Witt Jr. | — | vs Zack Littell | 25.4% | No Home Run |
| #15 | Brandon Lowe | Pittsburgh Pirates | vs Aaron Civale | 25.1% | No Home Run |
Strikeouts
Pitcher Strikeout Results
Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.
| Pitcher | Opponent | Projected Ks | Actual Ks | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan McLean | Cincinnati Reds | 6.0 | 9 | +3.0 | |
| Braxton Ashcraft | Athletics | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 | |
| Carlos Rodón | Chicago White Sox | 5.2 | 7 | +1.8 | |
| Shohei Ohtani | Tampa Bay Rays | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| George Kirby | Baltimore Orioles | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 | On Target |
| Gavin Williams | Milwaukee Brewers | 5.1 | 4 | -1.1 | |
| Casey Mize | Houston Astros | 5.0 | 3 | -2.0 | |
| Sandy Alcantara | Philadelphia Phillies | 4.9 | 6 | +1.1 | |
| Peter Lambert | Detroit Tigers | 4.9 | 5 | +0.1 | On Target |
| Kyle Bradish | Seattle Mariners | 4.9 | 12 | +7.1 | |
| Brandon Sproat | Cleveland Guardians | 4.8 | 6 | +1.2 | |
| Javier Assad | Colorado Rockies | 4.6 | 1 | -3.6 | |
| JR Ritchie | San Francisco Giants | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 | On Target |
| Kyle Leahy | San Diego Padres | 4.5 | 7 | +2.5 | |
| Anthony Kay | New York Yankees | 4.4 | 2 | -2.4 |
Hit Probability
Hit Probability Results
Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.
| Player | Team | Matchup | Hit Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mickey Gasper | — | vs Braydon Fisher | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Sal Stewart | — | vs Nolan McLean | 65.0% | Hit |
| Ildemaro Vargas | — | vs Sam Aldegheri | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Everson Pereira | — | vs Carlos Rodón | 65.0% | No Hit |
| Keibert Ruiz | — | vs Luinder Avila | 65.0% | Hit |
| Masyn Winn | — | vs Bradgley Rodriguez | 65.0% | Hit |
| Jonathan Aranda | — | vs Shohei Ohtani | 65.0% | Hit |
| Mark Vientos | — | vs Nick Lodolo | 65.0% | Hit |
| Yordan Alvarez | Houston Astros | vs Casey Mize | 65.0% | Hit |
| Ketel Marte | — | vs Sam Aldegheri | 65.0% | Hit |
| Junior Caminero | — | vs Shohei Ohtani | 65.0% | Hit |
| Salvador Perez | Kansas City Royals | vs Zack Littell | 65.0% | Hit |
| Colson Montgomery | — | vs Carlos Rodón | 65.0% | Hit |
| Kerry Carpenter | — | vs Peter Lambert | 65.0% | Hit |
| Bryce Harper | Philadelphia Phillies | vs Sandy Alcantara | 65.0% | Hit |
Model Highlights
What the Model Got Right
Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.
Top Home Run Calls
- Kerry Carpenter — 26.5% HR probability
- Colson Montgomery — 25.5% HR probability
- Zach Neto — 24.1% HR probability
Top Strikeout Calls
- Nolan McLean — proj 6.0, recorded 9
- Braxton Ashcraft — proj 5.5, recorded 7
- Carlos Rodón — proj 5.2, recorded 7
Biggest Surprises
- Kyle Bradish — proj 4.9, recorded 12
- Javier Assad — proj 4.6, recorded 1
Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Kerry Carpenter. Model HR probability 26.5% — result: Home Run.
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