MLB Results — June 16, 2026

Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — June 16, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Games covered

404

Hitters evaluated

Pitchers evaluated

June 16, 2026

Slate date

Home Run Threats

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rank	Player	Team	Matchup	HR Probability	Result
#1	Byron Buxton	—	vs Kumar Rocker	25.4%	No Home Run
#2	Christian Walker	—	vs Framber Valdez	22.5%	No Home Run
#3	Juan Soto	—	vs Brady Singer	21.9%	No Home Run
#4	Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	vs Andre Pallante	21.7%	No Home Run
#5	Mike Trout	—	vs Merrill Kelly	21.6%	Home Run
#6	Austin Riley	Atlanta Braves	vs Adrian Houser	21.3%	No Home Run
#7	Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	vs Grant Holmes	21.0%	Home Run
#8	Junior Caminero	—	vs Justin Wrobleski	20.6%	No Home Run
#9	Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Tyler Phillips	19.8%	No Home Run
#10	Nick Kurtz	Athletics	vs Mitch Keller	19.5%	No Home Run
#11	Kyle Schwarber	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Tyler Phillips	19.0%	Home Run
#12	Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Jack Perkins	19.0%	Home Run
#13	Shea Langeliers	—	vs Mitch Keller	18.7%	No Home Run
#14	Tyler Soderstrom	Athletics	vs Mitch Keller	18.2%	No Home Run
#15	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	vs Edward Cabrera	17.9%	No Home Run

Strikeouts

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Pitcher	Opponent	Projected Ks	Actual Ks	Difference
Davis Martin	New York Yankees	6.3	4	-2.3
Hunter Brown	Detroit Tigers	6.2	7	+0.8	On Target
Jesús Luzardo	Miami Marlins	6.2	9	+2.8
Dylan Cease	Boston Red Sox	6.0	7	+1.0	On Target
Foster Griffin	Kansas City Royals	5.8	6	+0.2	On Target
Logan Gilbert	Baltimore Orioles	5.7	10	+4.3
Drew Rasmussen	Los Angeles Dodgers	5.6	7	+1.4
Payton Tolle	Toronto Blue Jays	5.5	6	+0.5	On Target
Reid Detmers	Arizona Diamondbacks	5.5	3	-2.5
Gerrit Cole	Chicago White Sox	5.5	6	+0.5	On Target
Zebby Matthews	Texas Rangers	5.4	4	-1.4
Michael Wacha	Washington Nationals	5.4	3	-2.4
Tyler Phillips	Philadelphia Phillies	5.3	4	-1.3
Michael King	St. Louis Cardinals	5.3	1	-4.3
Jack Perkins	Pittsburgh Pirates	5.1	6	+0.9	On Target

Hit Probability

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Player	Team	Matchup	Hit Probability	Result
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	vs Andre Pallante	65.0%	Hit
Bobby Witt Jr.	—	vs Foster Griffin	65.0%	Hit
Brandon Lowe	Pittsburgh Pirates	vs Jack Perkins	65.0%	Hit
Jose Siri	—	vs Merrill Kelly	65.0%	No Hit
Jo Adell	—	vs Merrill Kelly	65.0%	Hit
Nick Kurtz	Athletics	vs Mitch Keller	65.0%	Hit
Mike Trout	—	vs Merrill Kelly	65.0%	Hit
Logan O'Hoppe	—	vs Merrill Kelly	65.0%	Hit
Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Tyler Phillips	65.0%	No Hit
Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	vs Grant Holmes	65.0%	Hit
Juan Soto	—	vs Brady Singer	65.0%	Hit
Christian Walker	—	vs Framber Valdez	65.0%	Hit
Austin Riley	Atlanta Braves	vs Adrian Houser	65.0%	Hit
Byron Buxton	—	vs Kumar Rocker	65.0%	Hit
Junior Caminero	—	vs Justin Wrobleski	65.0%	No Hit

Model Highlights

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Mike Trout. Model HR probability 21.6% — result: Home Run.

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