MLB Results — July 1, 2026

Slate Summary

MLB Model Results — July 1, 2026

Every figure below is drawn from EdgeRanked's published projection and tracking artifacts for this date.

Games covered

386

Hitters evaluated

Pitchers evaluated

July 1, 2026

Slate date

Home Run Threats

Players ranked by the model's home run probability, with the recorded outcome.

Rank	Player	Team	Matchup	HR Probability	Result
#1	Juan Soto	—	vs Braydon Fisher	22.8%	No Home Run
#2	Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	vs Colin Rea	22.7%	No Home Run
#3	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	Toronto Blue Jays	vs Freddy Peralta	22.4%	No Home Run
#4	Pete Alonso	—	vs Noah Schultz	22.0%	No Home Run
#5	Hunter Goodman	Colorado Rockies	vs Max Meyer	22.0%	Home Run
#6	Manny Machado	—	vs Colin Rea	21.9%	No Home Run
#7	Francisco Lindor	—	vs Braydon Fisher	21.9%	Home Run
#8	Taylor Ward	—	vs Noah Schultz	21.9%	No Home Run
#9	Seiya Suzuki	Chicago Cubs	vs Walker Buehler	21.8%	Home Run
#10	Jackson Merrill	—	vs Colin Rea	21.6%	No Home Run
#11	Tyler O'Neill	—	vs Noah Schultz	21.6%	Home Run
#12	Kerry Carpenter	—	vs Will Warren	21.5%	No Home Run
#13	Michael Busch	—	vs Walker Buehler	21.4%	Home Run
#14	Ben Rice	New York Yankees	vs Troy Melton	21.3%	No Home Run
#15	Gunnar Henderson	Baltimore Orioles	vs Noah Schultz	21.0%	No Home Run

Strikeouts

Projected strikeouts versus actual, ordered by projection strength. “On Target” marks calls within one strikeout.

Pitcher	Opponent	Projected Ks	Actual Ks	Difference
Zack Wheeler	Pittsburgh Pirates	6.8	10	+3.2
Tatsuya Imai	Minnesota Twins	5.7	2	-3.7
Max Meyer	Colorado Rockies	5.6	5	-0.6	On Target
Paul Skenes	Philadelphia Phillies	5.6	5	-0.6	On Target
Andrew Alvarez	Boston Red Sox	5.5	6	+0.5	On Target
MacKenzie Gore	Cleveland Guardians	5.4	7	+1.6
Taj Bradley	Houston Astros	5.3	11	+5.7
Shane Drohan	Cincinnati Reds	5.2	7	+1.8
Dean Kremer	Chicago White Sox	5.2	4	-1.2
Payton Tolle	Washington Nationals	5.2	5	-0.2	On Target
Joey Cantillo	Texas Rangers	5.0	4	-1.0
Shane McClanahan	Kansas City Royals	5.0	4	-1.0	On Target
Will Warren	Detroit Tigers	4.9	7	+2.1
Walker Buehler	Chicago Cubs	4.3	6	+1.7
Noah Schultz	Baltimore Orioles	4.0	7	+3.0

Hit Probability

Players ranked by projected hit probability, with the recorded outcome.

Player	Team	Matchup	Hit Probability	Result
Fernando Tatis Jr.	San Diego Padres	vs Colin Rea	62.4%	No Hit
Juan Soto	—	vs Braydon Fisher	62.2%	No Hit
Shohei Ohtani	Los Angeles Dodgers	vs J.T. Ginn	62.2%	No Hit
Rafael Devers	San Francisco Giants	vs Zac Gallen	62.0%	Hit
Ben Rice	New York Yankees	vs Troy Melton	61.9%	Hit
Otto Lopez	Miami Marlins	vs Kyle Freeland	61.6%	Hit
Yandy Díaz	Tampa Bay Rays	vs Seth Lugo	61.6%	No Hit
Kyle Stowers	Miami Marlins	vs Kyle Freeland	61.4%	No Hit
Yordan Alvarez	Houston Astros	vs Taj Bradley	61.3%	Hit
Andrew Vaughn	—	vs Andrew Abbott	61.0%	Hit
Gunnar Henderson	Baltimore Orioles	vs Noah Schultz	60.9%	Hit
Seiya Suzuki	Chicago Cubs	vs Walker Buehler	60.8%	Hit
Xavier Edwards	—	vs Kyle Freeland	60.7%	No Hit
Brett Baty	New York Mets	vs Braydon Fisher	60.6%	Hit
Bryce Harper	Philadelphia Phillies	vs Paul Skenes	60.5%	Hit

Model Highlights

Automatically surfaced from the graded results for this date — no manual analysis.

Highest Performing Projection — Home Run Projection: Hunter Goodman. Model HR probability 22.0% — result: Home Run.

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