Hitter projections graded
21,782
Of 27,623 archived since 2026-03-26; last graded 2026-07-31.
MLB
MLB Projection Accuracy
Hitter and pitcher projections graded against final box scores, updated daily.
Pitcher strikeout projection error
±1.85 Ks
Average miss vs final box score across 2,040 graded starts; last graded 2026-07-31.
Pitcher innings-depth projection error
±3.35 outs
Average miss on recorded outs across 1,783 graded starts.
Tracking freshness
2026-08-01
Most recent tracked date; current as of the latest completed slate.
Hit probability vs. observed outcomes
Each graded hitter projection carries a pre-game hit probability. Grouping graded projections by that probability shows how often players in each band actually recorded a hit.
| Pre-game hit probability | Graded projections | Average projected | Actually hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 40% | 498 | 37.9% | 49.0% |
| 40–50% | 6,378 | 46.2% | 47.0% |
| 50–60% | 11,541 | 54.8% | 57.7% |
| 60%+ | 3,365 | 62.9% | 60.4% |
Method: projections are archived to tracking files before first pitch. After games complete, final box-score stats are written next to each archived projection. All figures on this page are computed from those files at page load — no re-modeling, no adjustments.